Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:22:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2690…f853 other 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$52 (-2%) realized −$51 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate2%2W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$2
other 37% −$2
sports 7% −$50
tech 2% $0
world 2% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 94 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 104 -2.5% -11.8% 2% 1% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 1% -11.2%
10% -20.2% 1% -19.7%
15% -27.9% 1% -27.4%
20% -35.0% 1% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$51
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses2 / 102
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)104 / 106
History coverage115d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 21 $8 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $7 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $4 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $16 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $7 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $6 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $73 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $33 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $68 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 20 $50 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $45 $0 -0%
Will Alexei Popyrin win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $41 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $55 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $37 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $40 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $46 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $43 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $34 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $44 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $45 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $45 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 10 $34 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $34 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $37 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $61 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $45 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $75 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $46 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $43 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $42 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 01 $48 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $47 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $36 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $44 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 27 $40 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $44 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $79 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $48 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $45 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $44 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 21 $52 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $33 1h
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $8 1h
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 16h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $5 17h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $5 19h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $7 19h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $7 2d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $4 2d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $4 7d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $6 9d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $6 10d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $5 11d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $5 12d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $5 13d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $5 13d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 13d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 13d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $6 14d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $6 14d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $5 14d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $5 15d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 24d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 25d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $40 25d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $40 26d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $33 26d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $33 27d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $35 27d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $35 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.29 · official $36.29 (match) · 268 history records