Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:24:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2693…06e4 crypto 436 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,262 (-10%) realized −$4,262 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%157W / 279L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day27.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$280
7 days−$441
14 days−$515
30 days−$910
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$6,037
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -47.1% -52.1% 28% 25% -56.6%
≤30d 157 -31.4% -37.9% 31% 30% -41.9%
≤90d 436 -20.4% -28.0% 36% 34% -22.7%
all 436 -20.4% -28.0% 36% 34% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.0% 34% -22.7%
10% ← realistic here -34.9% 31% -30.1%
15% -41.2% 28% -36.8%
20% -46.9% 23% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -13% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$77 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,262
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses157 / 279
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)436 / 436
History coverage64d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day27.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 436 Trades
no open positions (228 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 25 $57 −$25 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 25 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 25 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 25 $36 +$14 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $44 +$18 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$25 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 25 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 23 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $63 −$11 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 23 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 23 $42 −$15 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 23 $32 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 23 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 23 $12 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 23 $4 +$8 +201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $125 −$120 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 23 $42 −$15 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 23 $57 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 23 $79 −$35 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 23 $38 −$6 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 23 $44 −$8 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 23 $16 +$26 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$12 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 23 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$16 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$5 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$5 +166%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $29 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1811 history records