Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:21:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2698…1b8f other 452 markets active 5h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$161 (-10%) realized −$157 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%216W / 217L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$18
14 days−$8
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$157
sports 19% −$25
world 6% +$23
crypto 2% −$12
culture 1% −$2
politics 1% $0
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +21.8% +10.2% 57% 57% +3.7%
≤30d 152 -12.6% -20.9% 53% 51% -13.1%
≤90d 433 -15.4% -23.4% 50% 47% -19.2%
all 433 -15.4% -23.4% 50% 47% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 47% -19.2%
10% -30.8% 37% -26.9%
15% -37.4% 26% -34.0%
20% -43.6% 16% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized−$157
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses216 / 217
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions19
Markets (closed)433 / 452
History coverage82d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 433 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $23 $19 −$4 (-19%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 44¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 35¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 55¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 54¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 49¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 30¢ 18¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-42%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 29¢ 31¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 112 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 +$4 +32%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $8 +$3 +42%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 −$2 -38%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $16 +$9 +56%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +226%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$7 +325%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$5 +122%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -42%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $13 +$7 +54%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +226%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +48%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $12 +$6 +53%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -99%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 12 $8 −$4 -52%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +27%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $3 −$2 -67%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Belarus win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $2 $0 +18%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1 $0 +23%
Will Niger vs. Mauritania end in a draw? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $4 $0 +3%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $2 +$1 +36%
Will Qatar vs. El Salvador end in a draw? Jun 07 $3 +$1 +42%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $7 +$3 +38%
Will El Salvador win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2 +$1 +36%
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $4 +$1 +28%
Will Romania win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $8 +$1 +9%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Albania win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -99%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $2 +$1 +29%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Andorra win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $2 +$1 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 5h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 5h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 11h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 13h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 20¢ $2 16h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 37h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 37h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 38h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 39h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 39h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 39h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 39h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 39h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 47h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 47h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY No 67¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $2 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $2 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 4d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 29¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.76 · official $84.76 (match) · 1223 history records