Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T08:25:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
26 0x269a…f6bf sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 192d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$27 (+1%) realized +$31 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate59%10W / 7L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$257now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 57% −$104
sports 16% +$27
other 15% +$90
politics 8% +$67
crypto 3% −$55
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -22.8% -30.1% 0% 0% -31.4%
≤90d 7 -8.5% -17.2% 43% 14% -18.8%
all 17 +7.0% -3.2% 59% 41% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 41% -7.0%
10% -12.5% 41% -15.9%
15% -20.9% 41% -24.0%
20% -28.7% 29% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% too few recent
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$36 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$257
Realized+$31
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses10 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)17 / 20
History coverage192d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $256 $252 −$4 (-1%)
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 16 $7 −$1 -10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 16 $7 −$1 -15%
Will Karen Khachanov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 16 $8 −$3 -43%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? May 24 $189 −$100 -53%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 27 $144 +$67 +46%
Bucks vs. 76ers Apr 13 $5 $0 +8%
Mavericks vs. Spurs Apr 11 $7 +$1 +7%
Raptors vs. Rockets Mar 12 $84 +$45 +54%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026? Mar 08 $88 +$59 +67%
Oilers vs. Ducks Feb 26 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 25 $169 +$1 +1%
Trail Blazers vs. Jazz Feb 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 26 $24 +$33 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 7? Jan 10 $54 −$54 -100%
Heat vs. Timberwolves Jan 10 $63 +$26 +41%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jan 04 $32 +$27 +85%
Rockets vs. Nuggets Dec 19 $22 +$20 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $147 49m
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $108 49m
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $87 56m
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $165 59m
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $25 1h
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $13 1h
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $160 1h
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $75 1h
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $113 1h
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $286 1h
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $118 1h
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $181 1h
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $4 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? AND Will England win on 2026-06- BUY 69¢ $3 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 9d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 9d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 9d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 9d
Will Karen Khachanov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 9d
Will Karen Khachanov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9d
Will Karen Khachanov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 0¢ $8 9d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $6 31d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $6 32d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL No 4¢ $76 32d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL No 8¢ $4 37d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $2 37d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $42 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $256.87 · official $256.90 (match) · 67 history records