Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:57:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
26 0x269a…fe8b sports 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$37 (+1%) realized +$131 · open −$94
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate70%16W / 7L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$82
other 34% −$156
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +21.3% +9.7% 70% 65% -8.9%
≤30d 23 +21.3% +9.7% 70% 65% -8.9%
≤90d 23 +21.3% +9.7% 70% 65% -8.9%
all 23 +21.3% +9.7% 70% 65% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.7% 65% -8.9%
10% -0.8% 48% -17.6%
15% -10.3% 35% -25.6%
20% -19.1% 22% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$102 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$131
Unrealized−$94
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses16 / 7
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage6d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 42¢ 11¢ $127 $33 −$94 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $379 −$371 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $254 +$126 +50%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $415 +$134 +32%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $367 +$48 +13%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $295 +$69 +24%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $167 −$167 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $195 +$102 +52%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $140 +$55 +40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $26 +$114 +437%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $24 +$1 +6%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $82 −$57 -70%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $16 −$9 -55%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $75 +$15 +20%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $60 +$15 +24%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $50 +$11 +21%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $27 +$28 +103%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $4 +$7 +177%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 +$3 +56%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $16 +$2 +11%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $11 +$5 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 42¢ $129 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 43¢ $129 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 40¢ $125 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 21h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 30¢ $379 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $380 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 66¢ $254 27h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 70¢ $10 42h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $415 47h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $367 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $295 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $195 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $195 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $100 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 99¢ $140 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 18¢ $26 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $24 4d
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 21¢ $25 4d
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 67¢ $82 4d
Spain leading at halftime? SELL Yes 23¢ $7 4d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $16 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $90 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 83¢ $75 4d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $75 4d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 80¢ $60 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $61 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $56 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.29 · official $33.29 (match) · 50 history records