Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:53:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x269c…264a crypto 144 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (87 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$16 (+1%) realized +$191 · open −$175
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate69%98W / 45L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day87.1pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$133
crypto 9% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (87 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 143 +5.9% -4.2% 69% 64% -7.1%
≤30d 143 +5.9% -4.2% 69% 64% -7.1%
≤90d 143 +5.9% -4.2% 69% 64% -7.1%
all 143 +5.9% -4.2% 69% 64% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover87.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.2% 64% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -13.4% 47% -16.0%
15% -21.7% 34% -24.1%
20% -29.4% 24% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$191
Unrealized−$175
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses98 / 45
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)143 / 144
History coverage4d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day87.1
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Team Liquid 0¢ 0¢ $200 $25 −$175 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $903 +$43 +5%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 28 $850 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 28 $2 +$2 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 27 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 27 $2 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 27 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 27 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 27 $4 +$1 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $920 21m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 98¢ $50 25m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 98¢ $50 25m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 98¢ $50 25m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 98¢ $50 25m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 93¢ $50 25m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 93¢ $50 25m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 93¢ $50 25m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 93¢ $50 25m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 94¢ $50 25m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 90¢ $50 25m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 91¢ $50 25m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Liquid 22¢ $26 31m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 42¢ $51 31m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 77¢ $50 32m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 91¢ $50 36m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 91¢ $50 36m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 92¢ $50 40m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 92¢ $50 50m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 92¢ $50 50m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 0¢ $51 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $964 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 80¢ $50 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 80¢ $50 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 75¢ $50 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 63¢ $51 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 41¢ $51 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 61¢ $51 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 73¢ $50 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 73¢ $50 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.10 · official $25.10 (match) · 423 history records