Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:17:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

26
0x26a5…c39d
crypto · 17 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$191 +31%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$187 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized+$187
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)14 / 17
History coverage96d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 3 History 14 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Down 51¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Up 51¢ 54¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Mar 20 $16 −$9 -61%
NYA (NYA) Up or Down on March 17? Mar 20 $318 +$79 +25%
NYA (NYA) Up or Down on March 10? Mar 11 $273 +$122 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 95% +$202
crypto 5% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-31.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -31.0% -37.6% 36% 36% -46.0%
≤30d 11 -31.0% -37.6% 36% 36% -46.0%
≤90d 13 -29.0% -35.8% 38% 38% +7.4%
all 14 -23.8% -31.0% 43% 43% +17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.0% 43% +17.8%
10% -37.6% 43% +6.6%
15% -43.7% 36% -3.7%
20% -49.2% 29% -13.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.15 · official $2.15 (match) · 26 history records