Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:45:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x26a5…4c43 other 118 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,149 (-1%) realized −$1,149 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate22%26W / 90L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,074per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$1,228now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$7
14 days−$19
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$33
politics 37% −$56
sports 16% −$1,074
culture 3% −$6
crypto 1% +$3
world 1% $0
economics 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 64 -14.1% -22.3% 8% 0% -11.0%
all 116 -0.2% -9.7% 22% 10% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 10% -10.4%
10% -18.4% 10% -18.9%
15% -26.3% 8% -26.8%
20% -33.5% 6% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,633) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$17 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$1,228
Realized−$1,149
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses26 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)116 / 118
History coverage140d
Avg bet$1,074
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $877 $877 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $351 $351 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $1,402 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1,619 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,584 −$3 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,653 −$3 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,909 −$4 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,643 −$3 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,306 −$3 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,643 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $4,429 −$5 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $892 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,552 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 03 $475 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 03 $660 +$1 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $2,170 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $596 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $2,161 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,920 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $2,549 −$4 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $2,401 −$3 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $2,008 −$3 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,005 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,627 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $1,538 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $3,140 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $2,616 −$3 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 01 $1,522 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 01 $1,686 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $591 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 30 $288 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 30 $548 +$1 +0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $890 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $2,605 −$3 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $2,414 −$2 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $1,033 −$1 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $1,628 −$2 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $1,645 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,606 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $1,510 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $1,495 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $1,453 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,492 −$1 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $1,544 −$2 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $2,644 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,539 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $1,055 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $1,575 −$2 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $2,419 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $1,551 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $351 1h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $560 43h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $560 44h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $717 46h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $718 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $877 4d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,617 6d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,619 6d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,640 6d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,642 7d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,651 7d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,653 7d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,660 7d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,663 7d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,640 7d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,643 8d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,635 13d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,638 13d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,641 16d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,643 16d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,500 16d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,502 16d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $890 17d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $892 17d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $519 17d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $519 17d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $573 20d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $574 21d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $656 23d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $658 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,228.08 · official $1,228.08 (match) · 369 history records