Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:27:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
26 0x26a7…bb01 other 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$42 (+0%) realized +$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate46%48W / 56L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$4
14 days+$10
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$3
politics 21% +$50
economics 21% −$1
other 15% −$6
sports 3% −$4
finance 2% $0
crypto 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
weather 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.5% -8.1% 57% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 26 +77.3% +60.5% 46% 4% -9.5%
≤90d 38 +53.0% +38.4% 47% 3% -9.3%
all 104 +15.4% +4.4% 46% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.4% 3% -9.2%
10% -5.6% 3% -17.9%
15% -14.7% 3% -25.8%
20% -23.0% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses48 / 56
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)104 / 106
History coverage484d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 95¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $122 +$3 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $34 +$3 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $210 −$2 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $104 −$2 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $251 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $94 +$2 +3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $57 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $54 +$2 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $295 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $354 +$6 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $264 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $373 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $184 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $407 −$2 -1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $82 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $116 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $190 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $182 −$7 -4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $87 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $89 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $92 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 24 $297 −$3 -1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 22 $79 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $104 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $182 $0 +0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 20 $102 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $92 +$1 +1%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $91 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $240 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $116 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 26 $2,255 −$1 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $20 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $191 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $1,064 +$22 +2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $351 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $1,064 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $243 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Dec 23 $9 $0 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 27 $7 $0 +1%
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Jun 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will Pascal Siakam Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 12 $13 $0 -1%
Will Cameron Young win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 12 $13 $0 -2%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 12 $13 $0 -2%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? Jun 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of Ne Jun 10 $13 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Epstein" by Monday? Jun 09 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $32 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $32 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $29 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $37 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $14 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $17 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $93 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $9 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $102 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $6 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $86 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $93 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $102 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $104 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $84 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $43 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $51 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $95 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $97 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $4 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $74 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $18 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $51 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $43 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $57 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.41 · official $32.42 (match) · 390 history records