Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:05:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
26 0x26a8…8a98 sports 493 markets active 2d ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$186 (+3%) realized +$186 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%271W / 222L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day48.3pace
Fees−$75est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days+$78
14 days−$6
30 days+$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$99
other 5% +$34
crypto 5% −$34
politics 1% −$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +16.2% +5.2% 68% 66% +0.4%
≤30d 478 +4.4% -5.6% 55% 52% -7.4%
≤90d 493 +3.9% -6.0% 55% 52% -8.0%
all 493 +3.9% -6.0% 55% 52% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.0% 52% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -15.0% 46% -16.8%
15% -23.2% 39% -24.8%
20% -30.7% 31% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$186
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses271 / 222
Est. fees paid−$75
Open positions0
Markets (closed)493 / 493
History coverage28d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day48.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 493 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Cowan be the Republican nominee for GA-11? Jun 17 $15 +$1 +10%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 +$3 +50%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $7 −$5 -73%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $22 +$9 +43%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $7 +$24 +344%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $7 +$5 +70%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $14 +$6 +40%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $22 +$10 +46%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $7 +$5 +76%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $14 +$15 +105%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $17 +$15 +89%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 +$16 +109%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $7 +$3 +40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $22 +$10 +46%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $22 +$9 +40%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $22 +$13 +58%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-18.5) Jun 14 $7 +$1 +21%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 14 $7 +$3 +50%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 14 $7 +$7 +105%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $14 +$12 +86%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 169.5 Jun 14 $7 +$6 +90%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-11.5) Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $7 +$2 +31%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $22 +$6 +26%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $7 +$12 +172%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $14 +$30 +211%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $22 +$6 +29%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $8 +$9 +114%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $7 +$5 +70%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $22 −$8 -36%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $22 +$7 +31%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $22 +$5 +21%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $14 +$3 +21%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $7 +$2 +23%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $7 +$2 +29%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $22 +$15 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 48¢ $7 39h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 48¢ $7 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 45h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL FUT Esports 21¢ $0 47h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL FUT Esports 20¢ $0 47h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL FUT Esports 20¢ $0 47h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL FUT Esports 20¢ $0 47h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL FUT Esports 20¢ $0 47h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL FUT Esports 20¢ $0 47h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL FUT Esports 20¢ $0 47h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL FUT Esports 20¢ $0 47h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL FUT Esports 20¢ $0 47h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL FUT Esports 20¢ $0 47h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL FUT Esports 20¢ $0 47h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL FUT Esports 20¢ $0 47h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL FUT Esports 20¢ $0 47h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL FUT Esports 20¢ $0 47h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL FUT Esports 20¢ $0 47h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 47¢ $7 47h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL FUT Esports 20¢ $0 47h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL FUT Esports 20¢ $0 47h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL FUT Esports 20¢ $0 47h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL FUT Esports 20¢ $0 47h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL FUT Esports 20¢ $0 47h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL FUT Esports 20¢ $0 47h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL FUT Esports 20¢ $0 47h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL FUT Esports 20¢ $0 47h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL FUT Esports 20¢ $0 47h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL FUT Esports 20¢ $1 47h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL FUT Esports 20¢ $0 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1817 history records