Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:45:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
26 0x26ab…c986 crypto 458 markets active 2h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$797 (+12%) realized +$794 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%235W / 224L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$255
14 days+$346
30 days+$532
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$625
other 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +39.6% +26.3% 62% 62% +27.6%
≤30d 140 +15.2% +4.2% 54% 54% +2.5%
≤90d 350 +13.5% +2.7% 51% 51% -0.3%
all 459 +14.2% +3.4% 51% 51% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.4% 51% -1.1%
10% -6.5% 51% -10.6%
15% -15.6% 51% -19.2%
20% -23.8% 51% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$15 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$794
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses235 / 224
Open positions1
Markets (closed)459 / 458
History coverage105d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 459 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 0¢ 62¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 224 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 18 $24 +$22 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $36 +$45 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $36 +$35 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$34 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$34 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $36 +$37 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $36 +$43 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $36 +$37 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $37 +$110 +298%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $36 +$38 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $36 +$43 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $36 +$43 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $36 +$46 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $36 +$35 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $36 +$66 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $35 +$53 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $36 +$37 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $36 +$34 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $36 +$37 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 09 $36 +$34 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 09 $36 +$40 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 09 $36 +$38 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 09 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 09 $36 +$34 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 09 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 08 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 08 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 08 $25 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 08 $36 +$38 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 08 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 08 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 08 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 08 $36 +$34 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 08 $36 +$34 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 07 $36 −$35 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $24 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $36 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $36 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $36 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $36 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $36 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $36 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $36 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $36 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $36 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $36 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $36 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $19 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $37 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $36 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $36 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $36 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $36 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $36 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $36 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $36 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $36 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $35 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $36 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $36 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $36 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $36 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.18 · official $3.18 (match) · 712 history records