Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:00:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
26 0x26ae…9dc6 crypto 119 markets active 2h ago coverage 192d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 191d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$280 (+2%) realized +$280 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate68%81W / 38L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day17.7pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$52
14 days+$374
30 days+$235
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% +$268
sports 39% +$204
other 14% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +4.2% -5.7% 95% 14% -7.5%
≤30d 63 +3.9% -6.0% 86% 33% -7.0%
≤90d 63 +3.9% -6.0% 86% 33% -7.0%
all 119 +17.4% +6.2% 68% 27% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.2% 27% -6.8%
10% -3.9% 16% -15.7%
15% -13.2% 8% -23.9%
20% -21.7% 6% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
28.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$26 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$280
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses81 / 38
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)119 / 119
History coverage192d ⚠
Avg bet$133
Trades / day17.7
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 119 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $100 +$3 +3%
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $200 $0 +0%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 27 $100 +$7 +7%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 27 $200 +$4 +2%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $149 +$5 +4%
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs Millennium Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 26 $20 +$6 +29%
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 26 $50 +$9 +19%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Jun 26 $42 +$36 +87%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $50 +$4 +7%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $100 +$2 +2%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $1 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $1 $0 +1%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $1 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Canada? Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $1 $0 +9%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $200 +$6 +3%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $200 +$3 +1%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $470 +$5 +1%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $240 $0 +0%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $200 +$12 +6%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $200 +$5 +2%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $230 +$7 +3%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $200 −$2 -1%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $100 +$1 +1%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $1 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $300 +$6 +2%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$1 -5%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 3 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 $0 +5%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 +$2 +17%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $200 +$17 +8%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $200 +$14 +7%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $25 +$10 +38%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $400 +$8 +2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$16 +32%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 +$23 +23%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $131 −$14 -11%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $101 +$24 +24%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $50 +$13 +26%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $91 +$47 +52%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $201 +$21 +11%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $20 −$1 -6%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $124 +$56 +45%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $120 +$17 +14%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $242 +$78 +32%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $241 −$241 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $201 +$58 +29%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $201 +$34 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 2 Canada? SELL No 99¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 2 Canada? SELL No 99¢ $199 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 97¢ $100 2h
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 2 Canada? BUY No 99¢ $200 2h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Atlanta Braves 100¢ $107 41h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Atlanta Braves 93¢ $100 41h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Athletics 100¢ $204 41h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Athletics 98¢ $200 42h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $154 2d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $149 2d
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs Millennium Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Prestige 90¢ $26 2d
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - European Pro League SELL Entropy 99¢ $60 2d
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs Millennium Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Prestige 70¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Entropy 83¢ $50 2d
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast SELL Ivory 30¢ $3 2d
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast SELL Ivory 30¢ $3 2d
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast SELL Ivory 30¢ $3 2d
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast SELL Ivory 30¢ $3 2d
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast SELL Ivory 30¢ $2 2d
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast SELL Ivory 30¢ $4 2d
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast SELL Ivory 30¢ $8 2d
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast SELL Ivory 30¢ $4 2d
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast BUY Ivory 10¢ $10 2d
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast SELL Mentality Monster 75¢ $15 2d
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast SELL Mentality Monster 85¢ $33 2d
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast BUY Mentality Monster 54¢ $32 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $50 3d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $50 3d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $100 3d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records