Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:31:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x26af…4c05 crypto 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (90 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$5 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate58%29W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day90.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (90 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +8.9% -1.5% 58% 48% -10.4%
≤30d 50 +8.9% -1.5% 58% 48% -10.4%
≤90d 50 +8.9% -1.5% 58% 48% -10.4%
all 50 +8.9% -1.5% 58% 48% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover90.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.5% 48% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -10.9% 40% -19.0%
15% -19.5% 34% -26.8%
20% -27.4% 32% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses29 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day90.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Up 56¢ 46¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$6 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$8 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$8 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$4 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$6 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$9 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$4 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$10 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$15 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.17 · official $4.53 (match) · 140 history records