Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:30:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

26 0x26af…3fcc other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$214 (-21%) realized −$244 · open +$30

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip

Net edge-40%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$209per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit40%portable

Net worth$430now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-39.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	4	-33.1%	-39.5%	50%	25%	-40.2%
≤90d	4	-33.1%	-39.5%	50%	25%	-40.2%
all	4	-33.1%	-39.5%	50%	25%	-40.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-39.5%	25%	-40.2%
10%	-45.3%	25%	-45.9%
15%	-50.5%	25%	-51.1%
20%	-55.4%	25%	-55.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 88% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -34% too few recent

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -33% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$52 vs −$161 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.32 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage

Net worth$430

Realized−$244

Unrealized+$30

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage13d

Avg bet$209

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	93¢	100¢	$400	$430	+$30 (+7%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$271	−$270	-100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$152	+$92	+60%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$168	+$12	+7%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw?	Jun 15	$51	−$51	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	93¢	$401	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	89¢	$271	9d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5	BUY Over	62¢	$152	11d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	93¢	$168	12d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw?	BUY Yes	18¢	$51	12d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $429.89 · official $429.89 (match) · 8 history records