Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:06:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x26af…b1ca world 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 260d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate25%14W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$1
politics 22% −$3
other 14% −$2
sports 8% $0
crypto 8% −$2
finance 5% $0
culture 3% −$1
economics 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.0% -10.4% 17% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.3%
all 55 -3.4% -12.6% 25% 2% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 2% -10.1%
10% -21.0% 0% -18.7%
15% -28.6% 0% -26.5%
20% -35.6% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

260d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses14 / 41
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage260d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $74 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 19 $35 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $18 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $5 $0 -7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $9 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $35 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 30 $35 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 30 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $39 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $38 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $37 +$1 +3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $34 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $53 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jan 31 $21 −$2 -8%
Will Kleber Mendonça Filho win Best Director at the 98th Academy Award Jan 31 $2 −$1 -40%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 +19%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Nov 14 $3 −$1 -19%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Nov 14 $22 −$1 -6%
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31? Oct 22 $16 $0 +0%
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 22 $1 $0 -14%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in October? Oct 22 $42 $0 -0%
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21? Oct 21 $18 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Oct 21 $18 $0 +0%
Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Oct 21 $4 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Oct 18 $20 −$3 -13%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 18 $18 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 18 $26 $0 -0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 13 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 13 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 12 $22 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 11 $25 $0 +0%
James Comey arrested by October 31? Oct 10 $21 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Oct 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? Oct 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Oct 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 07 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 06 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $39 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $39 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $6 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $29 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $14 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $21 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $35 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $14 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 45h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $11 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $18 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $35 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $35 3d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $10 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $12 18d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 19d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 19d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 19d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 203 history records