Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:36:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
26 0x26b0…29fa sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$44 (-11%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +90% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +72% what you keep after slip
Net edge+72%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 42d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$3
crypto 25% −$47
other 17% +$203
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+72.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +203.0% +174.1% 75% 50% +175.5%
≤30d 4 +203.0% +174.1% 75% 50% +175.5%
≤90d 7 +90.1% +72.0% 57% 43% +61.0%
all 7 +90.1% +72.0% 57% 43% +61.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +72.0% 43% +61.0%
10% +55.5% 29% +45.6%
15% +40.5% 29% +31.5%
20% +26.7% 29% +18.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +78% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +90% · $-wt +78% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$24 · ×2.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.22 per $1 lost it wins $3.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 12
History coverage42d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $23 +$183 +784%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $31 +$3 +9%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $31 +$36 +118%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 29 $16 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 18 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 18 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6AM ET May 18 $48 +$9 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $105.47 · 20 history records