Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:35:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x26b1…cc81 weather 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$116 (+1%) realized +$199 · open −$83
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate29%24W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$486now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$316
7 days−$717
14 days−$622
30 days−$824
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 70% −$1,866
world 11% −$196
sports 6% +$13
crypto 5% −$1
politics 4% +$190
other 3% $0
tech 1% −$87
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-29.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -33.1% -39.4% 19% 19% -49.3%
≤30d 31 -37.6% -43.5% 23% 19% -36.8%
≤90d 71 -19.2% -26.9% 31% 15% -28.0%
all 82 -21.6% -29.1% 29% 15% -33.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.1% 15% -33.0%
10% -35.8% 12% -39.4%
15% -42.0% 11% -45.3%
20% -47.7% 11% -50.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$45 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$486
Realized+$199
Unrealized−$83
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses24 / 58
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)82 / 89
History coverage138d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 22? Yes 48¢ 40¢ $486 $402 −$85 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on June 22? No 83¢ 87¢ $59 $62 +$3 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23? Yes 8¢ 16¢ $7 $14 +$7 (+94%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 23? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $11 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? No 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 21 $53 −$52 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 20 $164 −$164 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $438 +$58 +13%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $353 −$184 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? Jun 18 $82 −$60 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? Jun 18 $17 +$5 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 17? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 18 $26 −$21 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 18 $77 −$77 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on June Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 17 $103 −$102 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 15 $5 +$30 +577%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $42 +$122 +290%
Will Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros end in a draw? Jun 08 $435 +$95 +22%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $433 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 2? Jun 03 $40 −$39 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 2? Jun 02 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 2? Jun 02 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on May 26? May 30 $7 +$14 +196%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on May 25? May 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on May 25? May 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a success May 22 $94 −$87 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 21? May 21 $184 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on May 21? May 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on May 21? May 21 $286 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on May 21? May 21 $400 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on May 21? May 21 $168 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on May 19? May 20 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on May 19? May 20 $10 $0 +1%
Map Handicap: DRIP (-1.5) vs m1x (+1.5) May 18 $0 +$3 +759%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Map Handicap: m1x (-1.5) vs Dripmen (+1.5) May 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Spirit Academy White vs Dark Phoenix - May 06 $13 −$13 -100%
Pigossi vs. Llorca: Match O/U 21.5 May 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Solana reach $85 on May 4? May 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 4? May 05 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on May 4? May 05 $32 −$32 -100%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? May 03 $150 +$277 +185%
Will the Patek Index hit $107,000 (HIGH) by April 30? Apr 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 21? Apr 23 $27 −$15 -55%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Lotte Giants Apr 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on June 22? BUY No 84¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on June 22? BUY No 83¢ $38 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 22? BUY Yes 40¢ $160 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 22? BUY Yes 52¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 22? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 22? BUY Yes 55¢ $275 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 30¢ $12 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 35¢ $16 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 30¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 30¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 28¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 28¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 28¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 28¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 28¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 28¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 28¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 28¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 28¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 28¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 28¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 27¢ $6 4h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $143 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 23? BUY Yes 7¢ $11 8h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 7¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 7¢ $6 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $485.94 · official $485.94 (match) · 843 history records