Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:48:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
26 0x26b4…f441 world 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2 (+1%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate58%11W / 8L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% +$1
other 7% $0
tech 6% +$1
crypto 4% $0
culture 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 +0.7% -8.9% 40% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 10 +0.7% -8.9% 40% 0% -9.2%
all 19 -4.1% -13.3% 58% 0% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 0% -9.0%
10% -21.6% 0% -17.7%
15% -29.1% 0% -25.7%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.29 per $1 lost it wins $3.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage453d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 79¢ 79¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $53 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $19 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $40 $0 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 30 $39 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $18 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 29 $39 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $4 $0 +5%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 24 $2 $0 -1%
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? Jun 28 $9 +$1 +5%
Will Urawa Red Diamonds win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $1 $0 +2%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 17 $1 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88000 on Mar 28? Mar 29 $13 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 28 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $30 1h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $6 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $8 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $12 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $17 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $19 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $14 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $40 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $40 17d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 17d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 17d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $40 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $1 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $38 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $18 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $18 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $28 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $17 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $38 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $39 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 22¢ $12 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 22¢ $11 26d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 22¢ $12 26d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 22¢ $34 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $6 27d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $34 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.02 · official $30.02 (match) · 52 history records