Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:19:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x26bd…a06d crypto 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$283 (+14%) realized +$283 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate32%20W / 42L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day49.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$211
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -21.7% -29.2% 32% 27% +0.4%
≤30d 62 -21.7% -29.2% 32% 27% +0.4%
≤90d 62 -21.7% -29.2% 32% 27% +0.4%
all 62 -21.7% -29.2% 32% 27% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.2% 27% +0.4%
10% ← realistic here -36.0% 26% -9.2%
15% -42.2% 24% -18.0%
20% -47.8% 16% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$5 · ×4.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.01 per $1 lost it wins $2.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$283
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses20 / 42
Open positions0
Markets (closed)62 / 62
History coverage2d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day49.2
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 62 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $731 +$20 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 20 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $531 +$225 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $121 +$42 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $33 +$15 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$12 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 19 $13 +$7 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$4 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $16 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$17 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$10 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$7 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$3 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$9 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$4 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $731 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $27 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $531 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $121 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $2 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $33 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $21 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $13 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 155 history records