Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:10:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
26 0x26be…7cd7 sports 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$25 (+9%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%17W / 16L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days+$16
14 days+$47
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$59
other 31% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -2.3% -11.6% 47% 47% -2.1%
≤30d 33 +11.3% +0.7% 52% 52% +9.4%
≤90d 33 +11.3% +0.7% 52% 52% +9.4%
all 33 +11.3% +0.7% 52% 52% +9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.7% 52% +9.4%
10% -8.9% 48% -1.0%
15% -17.7% 42% -10.6%
20% -25.8% 39% -19.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$5 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses17 / 16
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 40
History coverage9d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $7 −$7 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $10 +$2 +21%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $6 +$4 +64%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 +$5 +97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $11 +$9 +76%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $11 +$10 +91%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 +$14 +134%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$4 +42%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$3 +34%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$3 +32%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$11 +105%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 +$5 +165%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $5 −$4 -88%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 +$7 +146%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$7 +140%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$19 +366%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$14 +276%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $10 +$6 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 44m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Wil BUY 17¢ $11 32h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 35h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 36h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $12 36h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY 25¢ $10 39h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $3 40h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $7 43h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Un BUY 18¢ $10 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 90¢ $9 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 AND Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY 42¢ $5 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 55¢ $6 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 82¢ $10 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $11 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 AND Canada vs. Qatar: BUY 27¢ $5 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 52¢ $11 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 18¢ $3 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 15¢ $1 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY 42¢ $10 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY 40¢ $10 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $10 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $10 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 3¢ $3 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 4d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $8 4d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 5¢ $1 4d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 37¢ $3 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.93 · official $9.93 (match) · 67 history records