Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:07:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
26 0x26be…805f sports 398 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$8,115 (+9%) realized +$7,687 · open +$428
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate64%250W / 141L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$239per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$971est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$4,314now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$497
7 days+$742
14 days+$1,049
30 days+$3,111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$9,523
other 11% −$2,238
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +27.2% +15.1% 59% 59% +3.4%
≤30d 71 +7.3% -3.0% 69% 63% +2.3%
≤90d 391 +11.2% +0.6% 64% 60% -2.5%
all 391 +11.2% +0.6% 64% 60% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.6% 60% -2.5%
10% -9.0% 51% -11.8%
15% -17.8% 42% -20.3%
20% -25.8% 34% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$133 vs −$187 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$4,314
Realized+$7,687
Unrealized+$428
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses250 / 141
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$971
Open positions7
Markets (closed)391 / 398
History coverage80d
Avg bet$239
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 391 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? No 79¢ 90¢ $3,223 $3,692 +$469 (+15%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? No 18¢ 16¢ $594 $545 −$50 (-8%)
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs HOTU Academy (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed Qualifier: Series #2 Group B Donstu Esports 73¢ 100¢ $18 $24 +$7 (+37%)
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Esport BERG (BO3) - DACH CS Masters Playoffs BIG Academy 81¢ 84¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Julie&cie (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs NEW VISION 73¢ 73¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage Vasco Esports 58¢ 68¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+16%)
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs Misa Esports 55¢ 54¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Brussels: Max Hans Rehberg vs Samuele Pieri Jun 26 $197 −$192 -98%
Map Handicap: EJ (-1.5) vs Fortress (+1.5) Jun 26 $6 −$6 -99%
Valorant: DRX Academy vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regul Jun 25 $16 +$9 +57%
ITF Tarvisio: Alina Granwehr vs Federica Trevisan Jun 25 $45 +$269 +596%
ITF Brussels: Tom Zeuch vs Max Wiskandt Jun 25 $204 −$203 -99%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $33 +$4 +12%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic Jun 24 $508 +$615 +121%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
ITF Zagreb: Glib Sekachov vs Eduardo Lage Jun 24 $251 +$43 +17%
ITF Wuning: Kuan-Yi Lee vs Aoran Wang Jun 24 $761 −$26 -3%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $3 +$1 +44%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Polina Isakova vs Anna Kubareva Jun 23 $653 +$128 +20%
ITF Brussels: Remy Dugardin vs Tim Handel Jun 23 $251 +$54 +21%
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Yu Ning Tsai Jun 23 $282 +$62 +22%
Valorant: FUSION vs LAZER (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Sea Jun 23 $7 +$5 +76%
ITF Taipei: Mio Mushika vs Yuki Naito Jun 23 $754 +$166 +22%
Jack Pinnington Jones vs. Camilo Ugo Carabelli: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $507 −$17 -3%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Jun 22 $254 −$9 -3%
ITF Taipei: Dayeon Back vs Haruka Kaji Jun 21 $251 +$50 +20%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S Jun 20 $3 +$5 +180%
ITF Ystad: Madison Sieg vs Lucie Petruzelova Jun 20 $188 −$183 -98%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso Jun 19 $14 −$14 -99%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Jun 19 $8 +$5 +67%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $5 +$5 +93%
ITF Klosters: Alexandre Aubriot vs Sandro Kopp Jun 18 $251 −$250 -99%
ITF Haskovo: Berfu Cengiz vs Elena Korokozidi Jun 18 $251 +$57 +23%
ITF Ystad: Rebecca Munk Mortensen vs Madison Sieg Jun 18 $35 −$34 -97%
ITF Klosters: Pedro Sakamoto vs Tanguy Genier Jun 18 $251 −$250 -100%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Jiaqi Wang Jun 18 $503 +$138 +27%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $17 +$7 +44%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $11 +$5 +48%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $17 +$7 +44%
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Zoe Kaegi Jun 17 $755 +$199 +26%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $4,342 +$1,258 +29%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $258 −$252 -98%
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Claudia Ferrer Perez Jun 16 $251 +$40 +16%
ITF Zhengzhou: Meng-Yi Chen vs Chenting Zhu Jun 16 $251 +$50 +20%
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez Jun 16 $252 +$69 +27%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Counter-Strike: Bushido Wildcats vs Eternal Fire Academy (BO3) - TESFE Jun 15 $454 +$66 +14%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Julia Avdeeva vs Eva Vedder Jun 14 $348 +$20 +6%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $836 −$820 -98%
ITF kiseljak: Vladyslav Orlov vs Alen Mujakic Jun 12 $332 +$108 +32%
ITF Hurghada: Viktoria Morvayova vs Martyna Kubka Jun 12 $251 +$46 +18%
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Sara Milanese Jun 12 $753 +$134 +18%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Marko Maksimovic vs Lorenzo Gagliardo Jun 11 $533 +$1,050 +197%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Sean Cuenin vs Niccolo Baroni Jun 11 $9 −$8 -97%
ITF Wuning: Yidi Yang vs Mai Hontama Jun 11 $754 +$161 +21%
ITF Tokyo: Jumpei Yamasaki vs Hayden Jones Jun 11 $251 +$57 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Esport BERG (BO3) - DACH CS Masters Pla BUY BIG Academy 81¢ $20 30m
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Se BUY Vasco Esports 58¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Se BUY Vasco Esports 58¢ $3 1h
ITF Brussels: Max Hans Rehberg vs Samuele Pieri BUY Samuele Pieri 17¢ $65 1h
ITF Brussels: Max Hans Rehberg vs Samuele Pieri BUY Samuele Pieri 19¢ $76 1h
ITF Brussels: Max Hans Rehberg vs Samuele Pieri BUY Samuele Pieri 15¢ $56 1h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Misa Esports 55¢ $7 6h
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Julie&cie (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers BUY NEW VISION 73¢ $15 7h
Map Handicap: EJ (-1.5) vs Fortress (+1.5) BUY Fortress 53¢ $6 18h
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs HOTU Academy (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar BUY Donstu Esports 73¢ $18 19h
ITF Tarvisio: Alina Granwehr vs Federica Trevisan BUY Federica Trevisan 14¢ $45 32h
ITF Brussels: Tom Zeuch vs Max Wiskandt BUY Max Wiskandt 77¢ $204 34h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic BUY Teodora Kostovic 45¢ $254 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic BUY Teodora Kostovic 44¢ $254 2d
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY UCAM Esports Club 80¢ $20 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $33 2d
ITF Zagreb: Glib Sekachov vs Eduardo Lage BUY Glib Sekachov 85¢ $251 2d
ITF Wuning: Kuan-Yi Lee vs Aoran Wang BUY Kuan-Yi Lee 51¢ $254 2d
ITF Wuning: Kuan-Yi Lee vs Aoran Wang BUY Kuan-Yi Lee 51¢ $254 2d
ITF Wuning: Kuan-Yi Lee vs Aoran Wang BUY Kuan-Yi Lee 51¢ $254 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 18¢ $609 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 79¢ $3,244 2d
ITF Palma Del Rio: Polina Isakova vs Anna Kubareva BUY Anna Kubareva 81¢ $251 2d
ITF Palma Del Rio: Polina Isakova vs Anna Kubareva BUY Anna Kubareva 81¢ $151 2d
ITF Palma Del Rio: Polina Isakova vs Anna Kubareva BUY Anna Kubareva 87¢ $251 2d
ITF Brussels: Remy Dugardin vs Tim Handel BUY Tim Handel 82¢ $251 3d
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Yu Ning Tsai BUY Kayo Nishimura 82¢ $251 3d
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Yu Ning Tsai BUY Kayo Nishimura 78¢ $21 3d
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Yu Ning Tsai BUY Kayo Nishimura 78¢ $10 3d
ITF Taipei: Mio Mushika vs Yuki Naito BUY Yuki Naito 86¢ $251 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,313.67 · official $4,313.67 (match) · 924 history records