Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:43:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x26c3…797d crypto 96 markets active 1d ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$74 (-24%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%51W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$31
14 days−$34
30 days−$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$34
sports 32% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -19.6% -27.3% 57% 52% -23.0%
≤30d 96 -23.0% -30.3% 53% 49% -32.2%
≤90d 96 -23.0% -30.3% 53% 49% -32.2%
all 96 -23.0% -30.3% 53% 49% -32.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.3% 49% -32.2%
10% -37.0% 42% -38.7%
15% -43.1% 32% -44.6%
20% -48.7% 18% -50.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses51 / 45
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)96 / 96
History coverage14d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 96 Trades
no open positions (44 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 167 history records