Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:27:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x26c3…2669 other 125 markets active 2h ago coverage 251d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate45%56W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$9
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% +$3
weather 20% +$1
other 20% −$23
culture 10% $0
sports 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 -54.8% -59.1% 29% 14% -25.6%
≤90d 20 +14.9% +3.9% 20% 15% +8.2%
all 124 -25.6% -32.7% 45% 5% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.7% 5% -10.0%
10% -39.1% 5% -18.6%
15% -45.0% 5% -26.4%
20% -50.4% 5% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 86% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses56 / 68
Open positions1
Markets (closed)124 / 125
History coverage251d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $14 +$16 +116%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 17? Jun 02 $51 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $7 +$8 +107%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Mar 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Mar 31 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 27 $6 +$94 +1567%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 25 $6 +$94 +1567%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $34 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $14 10d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 11d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 16d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 17d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 17d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 17d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 17? BUY No 99¢ $51 40d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $14 74d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 75d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 75d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 75d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 78d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 78d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 78d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 78d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 78d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 78d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 80d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 80d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 80d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 80d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 81d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 81d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 81d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 81d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 82d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 82d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.95 · official $33.95 (match) · 318 history records