Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:46:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
26 0x26c4…196b other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+14%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%2W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit8%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$14
sports 21% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -22.3% -29.7% 18% 18% +1.1%
≤30d 11 -22.3% -29.7% 18% 18% +1.1%
≤90d 11 -22.3% -29.7% 18% 18% +1.1%
all 11 -22.3% -29.7% 18% 18% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.7% 18% +1.1%
10% -36.4% 18% -8.5%
15% -42.6% 18% -17.4%
20% -48.2% 18% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$4 · ×5.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses2 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage3d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $11 −$1 -11%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $14 +$22 +152%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Cucurella: 1+ assists Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Aymeric Laporte: 1+ assists Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Alex Baena: 1+ assists Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$21 +414%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 59m
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $14 12h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 15h
Cucurella: 1+ assists BUY Yes 27¢ $1 25h
Aymeric Laporte: 1+ assists BUY Yes 17¢ $1 25h
Alex Baena: 1+ assists BUY Yes 32¢ $1 25h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 25h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 25h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.98 · official $0.98 (match) · 16 history records