Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:16:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x26c9…3aed other 127 markets active 2h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,041 (-1%) realized −$1,042 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate26%33W / 92L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,098per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,074now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$6
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$280
politics 32% −$51
sports 11% −$720
economics 3% −$5
crypto 1% +$4
culture 1% −$1
world 0% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 50 +2.1% -7.6% 10% 2% -8.7%
all 125 -5.6% -14.6% 26% 8% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 8% -10.2%
10% -22.7% 8% -18.8%
15% -30.2% 8% -26.7%
20% -37.1% 5% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,446) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$24 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$1,074
Realized−$1,042
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses33 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)125 / 127
History coverage150d
Avg bet$1,098
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $858 $859 +$1 (+0%)
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $215 $215 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 27 $2,032 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $222 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $277 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 18 $233 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $640 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,302 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,467 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $2,687 −$3 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,571 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $4,392 −$5 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $4,062 −$5 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $3,031 −$4 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1,366 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,420 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,694 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $808 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,030 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $444 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 02 $729 +$2 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $3,013 −$3 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $2,342 −$3 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $2,854 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $810 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $620 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $715 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $6,214 −$6 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,294 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $2,614 −$3 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $1,588 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April? May 04 $320 +$1 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $2,549 −$3 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr May 01 $383 +$1 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $2,456 −$3 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $1,986 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $1,542 −$2 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $1,362 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $5,884 −$6 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $2,174 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $3,582 −$4 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $1,358 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,329 −$1 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $1,446 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,332 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $1,423 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,354 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 10 $1,586 −$2 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 09 $3,248 −$3 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $1,475 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $1,475 −$1 -0%
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-9.5) Apr 07 $816 +$883 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $215 1h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $262 20h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $262 23h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $326 6d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $327 6d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $222 7d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $222 7d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $277 8d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $277 8d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $233 9d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $233 9d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $640 10d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $640 10d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $858 11d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,300 13d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,302 13d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,465 14d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,467 15d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,269 15d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,271 15d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,568 15d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,571 16d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,563 16d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,565 16d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,643 17d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,646 17d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,551 20d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,553 20d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,364 21d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,366 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,074.11 · official $1,074.11 (match) · 411 history records