Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:25:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x26cb…afc9 other 66 markets active 24h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (450 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$291 (-4%) realized −$254 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate28%15W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day449.6pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$321now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$86
other 33% −$389
crypto 1% −$54
world 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (450 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-42.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -36.6% -42.6% 28% 11% -13.4%
≤30d 54 -36.6% -42.6% 28% 11% -13.4%
≤90d 54 -36.6% -42.6% 28% 11% -13.4%
all 54 -36.6% -42.6% 28% 11% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover449.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.6% 11% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -48.1% 6% -21.7%
15% -53.1% 4% -29.3%
20% -57.7% 4% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$26 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$321
Realized−$254
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses15 / 39
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions12
Markets (closed)54 / 66
History coverage1d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day449.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $146 $144 −$2 (-1%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 48¢ 44¢ $48 $44 −$4 (-9%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Belgium? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $36 $30 −$6 (-17%)
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 1 Austria? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 1 Ghana? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $28 $26 −$2 (-7%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 40¢ $42 $20 −$22 (-52%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will Raphinha record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Lamine Yamal record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 3 - 3 Saudi Arabia? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $326 +$24 +7%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $555 +$295 +53%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $55 −$2 -5%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Netherlands? Jun 25 $55 −$54 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $175 −$37 -21%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $483 +$77 +16%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $289 +$21 +7%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 Mexico? Jun 25 $223 −$119 -53%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $65 +$35 +54%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $39 −$18 -46%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $55 −$55 -100%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 25 $47 −$6 -13%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 25 $31 −$16 -52%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $6 −$5 -95%
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 25 $108 −$80 -74%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $127 −$18 -14%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 25 $155 +$5 +3%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $283 +$11 +4%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $229 +$21 +9%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $241 −$6 -2%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $35 −$14 -39%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 Mexico? Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 Mexico? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 Mexico? Jun 25 $48 −$14 -30%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 Mexico? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 Mexico? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 25 $18 −$3 -15%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 25 $89 −$27 -30%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $16 −$5 -28%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $168 −$92 -55%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 25 $12 −$11 -88%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $42 +$8 +20%
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $47 +$3 +7%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $426 −$249 -58%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $112 −$5 -5%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $101 −$35 -34%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Mexico? Jun 25 $149 −$18 -12%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 25 $70 +$17 +24%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $191 −$17 -9%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $1,105 +$103 +9%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $266 +$58 +22%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $761 +$27 +4%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $46 −$45 -97%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 25 $130 −$13 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 23h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 23h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 23h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 23h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 23h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 23h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 23h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 24h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 24h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 25h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 25h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 25h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 53¢ $26 25h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $27 25h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 53¢ $26 25h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $27 25h
Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 48¢ $24 25h
Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 48¢ $24 25h
Will Lamine Yamal record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 25h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? BUY No 93¢ $47 25h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? BUY No 93¢ $47 25h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? BUY No 93¢ $47 25h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? BUY No 93¢ $47 25h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? BUY No 93¢ $47 25h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? BUY No 93¢ $47 25h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? BUY No 93¢ $47 25h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Netherlands? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 25h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Netherlands? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 25h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Netherlands? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 25h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Netherlands? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $321.32 · official $321.82 (match) · 552 history records