trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +0.5% | -9.1% | 100% | 0% | -9.1% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +0.5% | -9.1% | 100% | 0% | -9.1% |
| ≤90d | 5 | +0.5% | -9.1% | 100% | 0% | -9.1% |
| all | 29 | +1.5% | -8.2% | 90% | 0% | -9.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.2% | 0% | -9.2% |
| 10% | -16.9% | 0% | -17.8% |
| 15% | -25.0% | 0% | -25.8% |
| 20% | -32.3% | 0% | -33.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $100 | $100 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $55 | $55 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 19? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $10 | $10 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? | Jun 19 | $10 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? | Jun 19 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Hyperliquid dip to $21 Feb 23–Mar 1 | Jun 19 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? | Jun 19 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? | Jun 19 | $70 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Z.ai have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025? | Mar 01 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Moonshot have the top AI model on December 31? | Mar 01 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Z.ai have the top AI model on December 31? | Mar 01 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De | Mar 01 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Tencent have the top AI model on December 31? | Mar 01 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec | Mar 01 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Google be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septe | Dec 17 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| Fed rate cut in 2025? | Dec 17 | $113 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Sep 14 | $5 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Biden finish his term? | Sep 14 | $5 | $0 | +9% |
| Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before Trump inauguration? | Sep 14 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| US inauguration on January 20? | Sep 14 | $27 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? | Sep 14 | $45 | $0 | +0% |
| Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? | Sep 14 | $55 | $0 | +0% |
| Will a Democrat win Nevada US Senate Election? | Jan 15 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| Farcaster airdrop in 2024? | Jan 15 | $5 | $0 | +5% |
| Trump wins every swing state? | Jan 15 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| US government Bitcoin reserves in 2024? | Jan 15 | $5 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? | Jan 15 | $15 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi | Nov 08 | $117 | $0 | -0% |
| Bitcoin new all time high in 2024? | Nov 08 | $20 | +$1 | +6% |
| Bitcoin above $68,000 on November 1? | Nov 08 | $5 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Oct 30 | $160 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Oct 30 | $161 | $0 | -0% |