Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:36:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
26 0x26d3…7d9f world 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 65d
RISKYcopy with care world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$609 (+12%) realized +$609 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +94% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +76% what you keep after slip
Net edge+76%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$382per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$223
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$803
politics 26% −$225
crypto 11% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+75.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +377.9% +332.4% 33% 33% -7.1%
≤30d 3 +377.9% +332.4% 33% 33% -7.1%
≤90d 13 +93.9% +75.5% 54% 31% +1.4%
all 13 +93.9% +75.5% 54% 31% +1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +75.5% 31% +1.4%
10% +58.7% 23% -8.3%
15% +43.3% 15% -17.2%
20% +29.3% 15% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +94% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +166% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$152 vs −$78 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.28 per $1 lost it wins $2.28
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$609
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage65d
Avg bet$382
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $17 +$223 +1320%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 13 $99 −$95 -96%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $134 −$122 -91%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? Apr 30 $744 +$170 +23%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of t Apr 27 $771 −$27 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? Apr 25 $801 −$30 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Apr 22 $559 +$61 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Apr 22 $539 +$21 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $482 +$572 +119%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 17 $247 −$151 -61%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $290 −$43 -15%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of Apr 16 $16 +$1 +8%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 16 $271 +$17 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $240 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No $17 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $4 6d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No $12 6d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 16¢ $1 10d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 16¢ $133 10d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 23¢ $99 11d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $914 50d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $744 53d
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of t SELL Yes 92¢ $744 53d
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of t BUY Yes 96¢ $771 55d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $771 55d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $801 57d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $620 57d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $559 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $559 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $539 58d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $330 60d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $269 60d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $723 61d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $117 61d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $96 62d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $96 62d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $247 64d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? SELL No 11¢ $247 64d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $290 64d
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of SELL Yes 37¢ $17 64d
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of BUY Yes 34¢ $16 64d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun SELL Yes 65¢ $289 64d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun BUY Yes 61¢ $271 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 30 history records