trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +0.1% | -9.5% | 40% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 14 | +0.4% | -9.2% | 43% | 0% | -9.0% |
| ≤90d | 24 | +0.3% | -9.2% | 46% | 0% | -9.4% |
| all | 26 | -7.4% | -16.2% | 42% | 0% | -9.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -16.2% | 0% | -9.8% |
| 10% | -24.2% | 0% | -18.5% |
| 15% | -31.5% | 0% | -26.3% |
| 20% | -38.3% | 0% | -33.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $38 | $38 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 23 | $48 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 21 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by July 15? | Jun 20 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 19 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 19 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 17 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | Jun 15 | $34 | +$1 | +2% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 14 | $109 | +$1 | +1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 13 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $33 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? | Jun 10 | $36 | $0 | +1% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $7 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 9? | Jun 09 | $35 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 08 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Will France win Eurovision 2026? | Apr 27 | $66 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? | Apr 24 | $18 | $0 | +1% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | Apr 23 | $59 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? | Apr 21 | $63 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Apr 03 | $249 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Apr 02 | $338 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Apr 01 | $227 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Apr 01 | $250 | $0 | +0% |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Mar 31 | $227 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Mar 30 | $227 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Nottingham Forest vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Jan 15 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Will West Ham vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Jan 15 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |