Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:57:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x26dd…f6b9 world 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$474 (-11%) realized −$299 · open −$175
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate36%38W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$240now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days−$46
14 days−$473
30 days−$459
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$229
tech 21% −$316
weather 14% +$212
crypto 6% −$217
other 6% −$7
finance 6% +$35
sports 4% −$51
politics 3% −$4
economics 3% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -66.8% -70.0% 18% 9% -14.0%
≤30d 16 -36.8% -42.9% 25% 19% -38.4%
≤90d 107 -10.6% -19.1% 36% 30% -20.8%
all 107 -10.6% -19.1% 36% 30% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 30% -20.8%
10% -26.9% 28% -28.4%
15% -33.9% 21% -35.3%
20% -40.4% 15% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$20 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$240
Realized−$299
Unrealized−$175
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses38 / 69
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions12
Markets (closed)107 / 119
History coverage84d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 67¢ 66¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 57¢ 55¢ $35 $33 −$2 (-4%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $35 $32 −$3 (-7%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $12 $16 +$4 (+32%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-17%)
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? No 59¢ 1¢ $175 $2 −$173 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian president Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of May 4 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 17 $818 +$29 +4%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 +$25 +162%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Jun 04 $16 +$24 +146%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in July 2026 (ET)? Jun 04 $72 −$68 -95%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? Jun 04 $25 −$24 -95%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $385 −$359 -93%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on May 24 $5 +$14 +282%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $15 +$12 +78%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 11 $35 +$2 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 01 $155 −$155 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? May 01 $18 −$18 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? May 01 $15 −$15 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? May 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 21 $25 −$25 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $15 +$34 +224%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 21 $10 +$4 +38%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $42 +$63 +147%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? Apr 21 $25 −$8 -32%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 19 $15 −$10 -69%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ap Apr 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Will AZ win on 2026-04-16? Apr 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-16? Apr 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-04-16? Apr 16 $20 −$19 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 15? Apr 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ap Apr 16 $133 −$27 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 16? Apr 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%? Apr 16 $65 −$65 -100%
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.5%? Apr 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.5% and 5.0%? Apr 16 $35 +$55 +157%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 15 $15 −$14 -94%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ap Apr 15 $22 +$6 +26%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 90°F or higher on Apr Apr 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ap Apr 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ap Apr 14 $15 −$5 -36%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ap Apr 14 $17 +$105 +603%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ap Apr 14 $205 +$82 +40%
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? Apr 14 $16 +$2 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 59m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $100 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $35 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $175 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 79¢ $429 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 77¢ $418 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 90¢ $40 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 34¢ $15 4h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 15h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 15h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 79¢ $365 26h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $15 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 72¢ $65 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 41¢ $35 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 79¢ $250 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 80¢ $103 3d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 13d
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in July 2026 (ET)? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 13d
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? SELL No 2¢ $1 13d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL No 3¢ $26 13d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on SELL Yes 19¢ $19 24d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 32d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $6 32d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 32d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 55¢ $15 32d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 32d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $37 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $240.42 · official $240.12 (match) · 315 history records