Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:24:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
26 0x26dd…0249 sports 1032 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d only
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,639 (-16%) realized −$6,595 · open −$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%512W / 518L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day51.9pace
Fees−$483est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$260now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$483
7 days+$888
14 days+$874
30 days−$475
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$5,604
other 12% −$361
world 0% −$79
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 394 -2.3% -11.6% 51% 49% -1.8%
≤30d 875 -2.5% -11.7% 50% 49% -11.5%
≤90d 1030 -4.5% -13.6% 50% 48% -22.5%
all 1030 -4.5% -13.6% 50% 48% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 48% -22.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 45% -30.0%
15% -29.4% 37% -36.7%
20% -36.3% 30% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$36 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$260
Realized−$6,595
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses512 / 518
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$483
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1030 / 1032
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$40
Trades / day51.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1030 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $200 $164 −$36 (-18%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 50¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 1 Winner Leo Team 51¢ 10¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $268 +$369 +138%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $24 −$20 -85%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $2 +$2 +114%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $2 +$2 +86%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $11 +$9 +83%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $25 +$14 +55%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $9 −$4 -45%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $32 +$24 +74%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $14 +$14 +106%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $6 +$2 +35%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Jun 20 $4 +$10 +226%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $9 +$3 +34%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5) Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $5 +$1 +26%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $16 +$6 +37%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $12 −$2 -13%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $23 +$10 +43%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $22 +$11 +52%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $6 +$9 +146%
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Estevez Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $1 +$1 +129%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$4 +18%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $44 −$7 -16%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $43 +$36 +83%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $137 −$11 -8%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $1 +$2 +140%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 19 $18 +$8 +44%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 19 $19 +$3 +17%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 19 $11 −$5 -47%
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mayar Sherif Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Ayla Aksu Jun 19 $21 −$1 -4%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $161 −$135 -84%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $24 +$4 +17%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $45 −$26 -57%
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro Jun 19 $57 +$25 +44%
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Yeon-Woo Ku Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $4 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $217 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 39¢ $41 1h
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 59¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 60¢ $2 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 69¢ $3 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 72¢ $1 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 72¢ $1 3h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $2 3h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 43¢ $15 3h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 64¢ $25 3h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 53¢ $2 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 47¢ $2 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 72¢ $9 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 71¢ $11 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 54¢ $4 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 37¢ $7 4h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Cleveland Guardians 63¢ $6 4h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 24¢ $2 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 6h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 79¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $260.16 · official $260.16 (match) · 3500 history records