Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:04:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
26 0x26de…5bfc sports 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$674 (-23%) realized −$674 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +96% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +77% what you keep after slip
Net edge+77%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%8W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$276
7 days−$597
14 days−$597
30 days−$690
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$697
sports 33% +$138
world 12% −$1
crypto 4% −$130
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+77.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +129.2% +107.4% 43% 43% -37.6%
≤30d 18 +96.1% +77.4% 44% 39% -35.0%
≤90d 18 +96.1% +77.4% 44% 39% -35.0%
all 18 +96.1% +77.4% 44% 39% -35.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +77.4% 39% -35.0%
10% +60.4% 33% -41.2%
15% +44.9% 28% -46.9%
20% +30.7% 28% -52.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +96% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late +235% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$142 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$674
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses8 / 10
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage25d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $243 −$11 -4%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $130 +$80 +61%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $74 +$195 +262%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $240 −$240 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $206 +$205 +100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $357 −$354 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $294 +$71 +24%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $6 +$4 +69%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $158 +$154 +97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $163 −$163 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $178 −$177 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $81 −$80 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $132 −$130 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 10 $190 $0 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $112 −$112 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $98 +$21 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $154 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $107 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $152 14h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $110 14h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $210 15h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $130 17h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $270 17h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $126 22h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $133 24h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $74 25h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 60¢ $81 37h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 60¢ $144 37h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 60¢ $15 37h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $401 39h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $6 40h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $50 40h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $50 40h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $50 40h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $44 40h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $6 40h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 41h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 43h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 44h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 44h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 44h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 44h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $16 44h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $9 44h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $6 44h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 44h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $275 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.00 · official $11.00 (match) · 74 history records