Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:31:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

26
0x26df…0eb0
crypto · 1522 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$157 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$157 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized+$157
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses1116 / 404
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1520 / 1522
History coverage48d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day39.7
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 1 History 1520 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$19
14 days−$20
30 days−$143
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Up 89¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Up 93¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $125 $0 −$125 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Up 89¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C or below on May 13? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - April 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$8 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$6 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$7 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 28 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 28 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 28 $5 +$1 +13%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 28 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 28 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 28 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 28 $6 +$3 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 28 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 28 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 28 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 29? May 28 $4 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 28 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 28 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 28 $17 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 28 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 28 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 28 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 27 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 27 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 27 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 27 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 27 $5 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 98% +$128
other 2% −$77
weather 0% −$11
sports 0% +$2
politics 0% +$115
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 25¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 5h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $9 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $9 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $9 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $9 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $9 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $9 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $3 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $9 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $9 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $2 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $9 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $9 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $9 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $8 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -10.2% -18.8% 76% 43% -19.6%
≤30d 859 +1.8% -7.9% 78% 42% -10.4%
≤90d 1520 -1.0% -10.4% 73% 47% -8.8%
all 1520 -1.0% -10.4% 73% 47% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover39.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 47% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 27% -17.6%
15% -26.8% 21% -25.5%
20% -34.0% 16% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.35 · official $10.35 · 3500 history records