Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:54:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

26
0x26e1…4e79
weather · 129 markets active 5h ago
0.0score
−$23 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$19 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$13
Realized−$19
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses51 / 74
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)125 / 129
History coverage43d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 4 History 125 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$0
14 days+$9
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 29¢ 14¢ $12 $6 −$6 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Yes 36¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+177%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? No 85¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$2 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$3 +167%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$2 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $18 −$12 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $17 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$3 +244%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $6 −$5 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $32 +$7 +23%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 5? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 7? Jun 07 $11 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 5? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 7? Jun 07 $26 +$3 +12%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -91%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $18 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $15 −$4 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 6? Jun 06 $26 +$6 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 5? Jun 05 $4 −$1 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 +$1 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 +$2 +146%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 +$2 +138%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 5? Jun 05 $28 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$1 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 5? Jun 05 $23 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$1 -46%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 4? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 4? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 4? Jun 05 $3 −$2 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 4? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 4? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $30 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C or below on June 5? Jun 05 $11 −$7 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C or below on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$1 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 4? Jun 04 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 4? Jun 04 $3 +$5 +156%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $9 +$2 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $13 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 4? Jun 04 $4 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 93% −$5
other 3% −$15
sports 3% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? SELL Yes 87¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? SELL No 36¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 53¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? BUY No 46¢ $4 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? SELL No 56¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? SELL No 61¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? BUY No 58¢ $3 10h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? SELL Yes 74¢ $6 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 85¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 11h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 11? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 29h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 11? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 34h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 36h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 36h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 36h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 37h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? SELL Yes 97¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10? BUY No 79¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 9? SELL No 95¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 9? BUY No 86¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 9? SELL No 52¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +9.4% -1.0% 42% 42% -9.4%
≤30d 83 +2.3% -7.5% 46% 35% -7.6%
≤90d 125 -7.6% -16.4% 41% 32% -12.1%
all 125 -7.6% -16.4% 41% 32% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 32% -12.1%
10% -24.4% 25% -20.5%
15% -31.7% 18% -28.2%
20% -38.4% 18% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.70 · official $12.70 (match) · 464 history records