Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:10:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x26e5…f9be crypto 199 markets active 2h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,161 (-2%) realized −$2,247 · open +$1,086
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate44%82W / 105L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day24.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$5,275now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$738
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$715
crypto 39% −$3,576
other 7% +$992
sports 2% +$35
politics 1% −$26
finance 0% −$7
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 -23.5% -30.8% 50% 40% -14.4%
≤90d 187 -13.5% -21.8% 44% 32% -15.7%
all 187 -13.5% -21.8% 44% 32% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.8% 32% -15.7%
10% ← realistic here -29.3% 26% -23.8%
15% -36.1% 17% -31.2%
20% -42.4% 13% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$81 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$5,275
Realized−$2,247
Unrealized+$1,086
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses82 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions12
Markets (closed)187 / 199
History coverage71d
Avg bet$240
Trades / day24.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 72¢ 99¢ $2,981 $4,105 +$1,124 (+38%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $312 $310 −$2 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $219 $220 +$2 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-07-01? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $154 $153 −$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $96 $95 −$1 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 20¢ $108 $85 −$23 (-21%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $84 $81 −$3 (-4%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $72 $70 −$2 (-2%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Yes $9 $8 −$0 (-6%)
Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $152 −$152 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1,039 −$1,039 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $395 +$497 +126%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $2,467 +$129 +5%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $50 +$12 +24%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $164 −$160 -98%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $154 −$150 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 02 $870 −$870 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $8,454 +$919 +11%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $77 +$76 +99%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 27 $200 +$66 +33%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $42 +$412 +985%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $487 +$143 +30%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1,045 +$231 +22%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $2,198 +$382 +17%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 06 $1,981 +$217 +11%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 05 $500 −$3 -0%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el May 05 $72 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 02 $94 +$189 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 02 $439 −$135 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 02 $301 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 02 $786 +$332 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 02 $347 −$329 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 02 $707 −$420 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 02 $131 −$77 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 02 $21 −$11 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 02 $326 −$86 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 02 $150 −$84 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 02 $96 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 02 $51 −$16 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 02 $731 +$231 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 02 $131 −$126 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 02 $553 −$369 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 02 $332 −$316 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 02 $199 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 02 $232 −$232 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 02 $166 +$11 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 02 $5 $0 +5%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 01 $50 +$46 +91%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House May 01 $51 −$4 -8%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 01 $10 +$5 +48%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $10 +$1 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 01 $3,532 −$38 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 01 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? May 01 $20 +$26 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 64¢ $97 1h
Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes $9 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $74 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 78¢ $79 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 78¢ $79 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 1h
Will England win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 77¢ $155 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 24¢ $49 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 78¢ $157 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 42¢ $85 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $147 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $59 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $17 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $96 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $76 15d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 43¢ $88 27d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 27d
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 19¢ $41 27d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 27d
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 27d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 27d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 80¢ $50 27d
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 27d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 44¢ $203 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $870 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 95¢ $2,399 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,274.85 · official $5,274.90 (match) · 1948 history records