Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:04:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x26e7…7508 crypto 196 markets active 2h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$83 (+0%) realized +$69 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate58%109W / 78L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$236now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$81
14 days+$264
30 days+$251
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$274
weather 20% +$279
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -16.1% -24.1% 32% 24% -5.6%
≤30d 72 -4.4% -13.5% 49% 39% -2.9%
≤90d 134 +3.9% -6.0% 51% 41% -8.0%
all 187 +2.5% -7.3% 58% 35% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 35% -9.6%
10% -16.2% 25% -18.2%
15% -24.3% 18% -26.1%
20% -31.7% 13% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$26 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$236
Realized+$69
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses109 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)187 / 196
History coverage145d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 27? Yes 9¢ 99¢ $10 $108 +$98 (+956%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 28? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $71 $67 −$4 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 28? Yes 32¢ 22¢ $64 $45 −$19 (-30%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 28? Yes 22¢ 14¢ $22 $14 −$8 (-35%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 28? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-45%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 27? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 27? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 27? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 27? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 26? Jun 26 $78 +$122 +155%
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 26? Jun 26 $1 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 26? Jun 26 $9 −$3 -39%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 26? Jun 26 $68 −$14 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 26? Jun 25 $19 −$18 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 26? Jun 25 $44 −$42 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 25? Jun 25 $188 −$182 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 25? Jun 25 $41 −$39 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 24? Jun 24 $79 +$21 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 24? Jun 24 $17 −$4 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 24? Jun 24 $8 −$3 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 24? Jun 24 $60 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 24? Jun 24 $86 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 23? Jun 23 $174 +$226 +130%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 25? Jun 23 $29 −$28 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 23? Jun 23 $136 −$131 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 23? Jun 23 $76 −$73 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 22? Jun 22 $98 +$102 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 22? Jun 22 $49 −$48 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 22? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 21? Jun 21 $75 +$125 +166%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 21? Jun 21 $216 −$16 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 20? Jun 20 $80 +$120 +150%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 20? Jun 20 $221 −$20 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 21? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 19? Jun 19 $45 +$155 +342%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 21? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 20? Jun 19 $67 −$65 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 18? Jun 18 $67 +$133 +197%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 18? Jun 18 $213 −$7 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 18? Jun 18 $226 +$30 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 19? Jun 18 $16 −$15 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 19? Jun 18 $77 −$76 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? Jun 17 $41 +$59 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $133 +$17 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? Jun 16 $24 −$23 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$9 +649%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 16? Jun 16 $128 +$24 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 17? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? Jun 16 $22 −$21 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $184 +$16 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 16? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$4 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 27? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 27? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 27? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 28? BUY Yes 35¢ $73 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 28? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 27? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 28? BUY Yes 36¢ $37 16h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 28? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 27? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 27? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 28? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 26? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 26? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 26? SELL Yes 55¢ $54 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 26? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 26? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 26? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 22h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 27? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 29h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 27? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 29h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 27? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 39h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 27? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 39h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 27? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 39h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 27? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 39h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 27? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 39h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 26? BUY Yes 38¢ $78 40h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 26? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 40h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 26? BUY Yes 27¢ $16 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $236.23 · official $236.23 (match) · 921 history records