Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:49:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
26 0x26e7…cc6c sports 515 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 72d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,591 (-1%) realized +$1,048 · open −$4,639
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%234W / 443L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$856per market
Trades / day43.4pace
Fees−$3,641est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$12,179now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 72d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$6,904
other 43% −$19,412
world 1% −$866
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 178 -92.5% -93.2% 4% 3% -83.5%
≤30d 305 -53.8% -58.2% 21% 21% -61.0%
≤90d 677 -22.2% -29.6% 35% 33% -26.4%
all 677 -22.2% -29.6% 35% 33% -26.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.6% 33% -26.4%
10% -36.4% 31% -33.5%
15% ← realistic here -42.5% 29% -39.9%
20% -48.1% 26% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$1,003) neutral
Persistence
early +6% → late -50% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$658 vs −$557 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$12,179
Realized+$1,048
Unrealized−$4,639
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses234 / 443
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$3,641
Open positions4
Markets (closed)677 / 515
History coverage72d ⚠
Avg bet$856
Trades / day43.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 677 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $11,475 $9,648 −$1,828 (-16%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 56¢ $1,964 $2,017 +$53 (+3%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 15¢ 3¢ $1,000 $230 −$770 (-77%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $2,100 $5 −$2,095 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 382 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-03-22? Jun 30 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Barcelona Open: Arthur Fils vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 30 $98 −$98 -100%
Leeds United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 30 $800 −$800 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Emma Raducanu vs Anastasia Zakharova Jun 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-04-12? Jun 30 $110 −$110 -100%
Credit One Charleston Open: Bianca Andreescu vs Dalma Galfi Jun 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Sheffield United FC win on 2026-03-07? Jun 30 $573 −$573 -100%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elise Mertens vs Ella Seidel Jun 30 $51 −$51 -100%
Barcelona Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Andrey Rublev Jun 30 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-12-09? Jun 30 $178 −$178 -100%
Wrexham AFC vs. Watford FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 30 $200 −$200 -100%
Will FC Famalicão win on 2025-12-14? Jun 30 $200 −$200 -100%
Miami Open: Alycia Parks vs Coco Gauff Jun 30 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-01-03? Jun 30 $291 −$291 -100%
Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-03-31? Jun 30 $2,755 −$2,755 -100%
Oeiras 3: Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Francisca Jorge Jun 30 $292 −$292 -100%
Barcelona Open: Cameron Norrie vs Stan Wawrinka Jun 30 $98 −$98 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Elena Rybakina Jun 30 $196 −$196 -100%
Credit One Charleston Open: Jessica Pegula vs Yulia Putintseva Jun 30 $389 −$389 -100%
Dubai Tennis Championships: Quentin Halys vs Jack Draper Jun 30 $23 −$23 -100%
1. FC Union Berlin vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 2.5 Jun 30 $200 −$200 -100%
Credit One Charleston Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Lulu Sun Jun 30 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-03-31? Jun 30 $773 −$773 -100%
Will Club Independiente Petrolero win on 2026-03-03? Jun 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-05? Jun 30 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
BNP Paribas Open, Qualification: Federico Agustin Gomez vs Shintaro Mo Jun 30 $200 −$200 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Linda Noskova Jun 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-12? Jun 30 $983 −$983 -100%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-12? Jun 30 $159 −$159 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-11? Jun 30 $196 −$196 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-27? Jun 30 $593 −$593 -100%
Will Al Fateh Saudi Club win on 2026-01-13? Jun 30 $38 −$38 -100%
Credit One Charleston Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Polina Kudermetova Jun 30 $98 −$98 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jun 30 $1,097 −$1,097 -100%
Credit One Charleston Open: Elvina Kalieva vs McCartney Kessler Jun 30 $209 −$209 -100%
Barcelona Open: Cameron Norrie vs Ethan Quinn Jun 30 $396 −$396 -100%
Bristol City FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 30 $500 −$500 -100%
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Southend United FC win on 2026-04-14? Jun 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Miami Open: Karolina Muchova vs Katie Boulter Jun 30 $62 −$62 -100%
Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5) Jun 30 $400 −$400 -100%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Valencia CF: O/U 2.5 Jun 30 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Will Modena FC 2018 win on 2025-12-26? Jun 30 $292 −$292 -100%
Will FC Fredericia win on 2026-04-13? Jun 30 $24 −$24 -100%
BNP Paribas Open, Qualification: Nicolas Jarry vs Francesco Maestrelli Jun 30 $97 −$97 -100%
Miami Open: Alexandra Eala vs Magda Linette Jun 30 $1,125 −$1,125 -100%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Luca Van Assche vs Hugo Gaston Jun 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-04-11? Jun 30 $949 −$949 -100%
BMW Open: Justin Engel vs Vit Kopriva Jun 30 $250 −$250 -100%
Barletta: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 30 $48 −$48 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $995 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $995 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 52¢ $995 25h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2,849 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $995 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 46¢ $995 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 46¢ $995 3d
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1,014 3d
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1,014 3d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1,015 3d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1,016 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko BUY Caty McNally 21¢ $1 4d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko BUY Caty McNally 21¢ $102 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Tatiana Prozorova vs Heather Watson BUY Tatiana Prozorova 17¢ $1 5d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Tatiana Prozorova vs Heather Watson BUY Tatiana Prozorova 17¢ $68 5d
Set 2 Winner: Draper vs Jones BUY Draper 95¢ $114 5d
Set 2 Winner: Kwon vs Gea BUY Gea 11¢ $6 5d
Set 2 Winner: Kwon vs Gea BUY Gea 11¢ $16 5d
Set 2 Winner: Kwon vs Gea BUY Gea 11¢ $17 5d
Set 2 Winner: Kwon vs Gea BUY Gea 15¢ $33 5d
Set 2 Winner: Kwon vs Gea BUY Gea 15¢ $87 5d
Set 2 Winner: Kwon vs Gea BUY Gea 9¢ $14 5d
Set 2 Winner: Kwon vs Gea BUY Gea 21¢ $32 5d
Set 2 Winner: Kwon vs Gea BUY Gea 21¢ $1 5d
Set 2 Winner: Kwon vs Gea BUY Gea 21¢ $5 5d
Set 2 Winner: Kwon vs Gea BUY Gea 21¢ $18 5d
Set 2 Winner: Draper vs Jones BUY Draper 78¢ $20 5d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Petra Marcinko 75¢ $354 5d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 32¢ $510 5d
Set 2 Winner: Altmaier vs Bergs BUY Bergs 91¢ $102 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,178.80 · official $12,179.16 (match) · 3500 history records