Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:19:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
26 0x26e7…016d sports 7 markets active 3d ago coverage 55d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$536 (-35%) realized −$536 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days−$476
30 days−$378
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$541
other 4% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +9.6% -0.8% 100% 0% -0.8%
≤30d 3 -8.6% -17.3% 67% 33% -60.7%
≤90d 6 -11.6% -20.0% 67% 50% -41.8%
all 6 -11.6% -20.0% 67% 50% -41.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 50% -41.8%
10% -27.6% 50% -47.4%
15% -34.6% 17% -52.4%
20% -41.0% 17% -57.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$395 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$536
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage55d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $36 +$4 +10%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $487 −$479 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $152 +$98 +65%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $295 +$85 +29%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 08 $236 +$64 +27%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 23 $314 −$310 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $27 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $36 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $487 11d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 60¢ $152 23d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 77¢ $295 42d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 78¢ $236 45d
Cavaliers vs. Raptors BUY Cavaliers 59¢ $314 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.96 · official $26.96 (match) · 11 history records