Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:56:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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26 0x26e8…ca5d crypto 1276 markets active 0h ago coverage 121d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 121d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$168 (+3%) realized +$168 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate64%815W / 460L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day23.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$39
14 days−$39
30 days−$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$180
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 121 -7.3% -16.1% 57% 40% -16.0%
≤30d 543 -3.1% -12.3% 72% 26% -11.4%
≤90d 922 -14.4% -22.5% 60% 30% -15.9%
all 1275 -3.1% -12.3% 64% 38% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 38% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 23% -20.7%
15% -28.4% 15% -28.4%
20% -35.4% 9% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$168
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses815 / 460
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1275 / 1276
History coverage121d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day23.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1275 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Up 80¢ 80¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 91 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.03 · official $4.12 (match) · 3500 history records