Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:45:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

26
0x26e8…4c39
weather · 10 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$10 -31%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$11 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11
Realized−$11
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)3 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 7 History 3 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+58%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-78%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Yes 34¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 −$10 -82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-51.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -46.5% -51.6% 0% 0% -82.0%
≤30d 3 -46.5% -51.6% 0% 0% -82.0%
≤90d 3 -46.5% -51.6% 0% 0% -82.0%
all 3 -46.5% -51.6% 0% 0% -82.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.6% 0% -82.0%
10% -56.2% 0% -83.8%
15% -60.4% 0% -85.3%
20% -64.3% 0% -86.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.06 · official $11.59 (match) · 20 history records