Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:59:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x26eb…5369 sports 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$117 (-8%) realized −$117 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate71%15W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day33.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$21
crypto 13% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -1.0% -10.4% 71% 52% -11.1%
≤30d 21 -1.0% -10.4% 71% 52% -11.1%
≤90d 21 -1.0% -10.4% 71% 52% -11.1%
all 21 -1.0% -10.4% 71% 52% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 52% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 33% -19.6%
15% -26.8% 29% -27.4%
20% -34.0% 24% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$52 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$117
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses15 / 6
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage1d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day33.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Irvine: Vit Kalina vs Marcel Latak Jun 17 $100 +$25 +25%
ITF Irvine: Patsy Daughters vs Anna Tabunshchyk Jun 17 $100 +$21 +22%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Hernan Casanova Jun 17 $67 +$42 +62%
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 17 $48 +$19 +39%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $48 +$1 +1%
Asuncion 2: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 17 $44 +$3 +8%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $95 −$94 -98%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $90 +$4 +5%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $90 +$12 +13%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $90 +$5 +6%
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida Jun 17 $17 −$17 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$10 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $78 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$38 +73%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 16 $101 −$100 -100%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $151 +$19 +12%
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto Jun 16 $90 +$63 +70%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $90 +$18 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Irvine: Vit Kalina vs Marcel Latak SELL Vit Kalina 100¢ $125 11m
ITF Irvine: Vit Kalina vs Marcel Latak BUY Vit Kalina 79¢ $100 1h
ITF Irvine: Patsy Daughters vs Anna Tabunshchyk SELL Patsy Daughters 96¢ $121 1h
ITF Irvine: Patsy Daughters vs Anna Tabunshchyk BUY Patsy Daughters 78¢ $100 1h
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Hernan Casanova SELL Juan Estevez 89¢ $109 1h
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Hernan Casanova BUY Juan Estevez 54¢ $67 2h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gonzalo Villanueva SELL Gonzalo Villanueva 97¢ $67 2h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 69¢ $48 3h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt SELL Nick Hardt 60¢ $48 3h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 58¢ $48 3h
Asuncion 2: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna SELL Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 92¢ $48 4h
Asuncion 2: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 85¢ $44 4h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 50¢ $95 9h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego SELL Ben Shelton 100¢ $95 9h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Ben Shelton 95¢ $90 9h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Frances Tiafoe 100¢ $102 9h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Frances Tiafoe 88¢ $90 10h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $96 11h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 94¢ $90 11h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida BUY Gustavo Almeida 61¢ $17 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $17 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $25 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $15 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $90 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 40 history records