Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:54:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

26 0x26f0…986b other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$221 (+21%) realized +$235 · open −$14

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip

Net edge+14%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%3W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$216per market

Trades / day12.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$451now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+23.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+35.9%	+23.0%	100%	100%	+22.0%
≤30d	3	+35.9%	+23.0%	100%	100%	+22.0%
≤90d	3	+35.9%	+23.0%	100%	100%	+22.0%
all	3	+35.9%	+23.0%	100%	100%	+22.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover12.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+23.0%	100%	+22.0%
10%	+11.2%	67%	+10.3%
15%	+0.5%	67%	-0.3%
20%	-9.4%	33%	-10.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 74% · top 2 88% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +35% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +36% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$71 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$451

Realized+$235

Unrealized−$14

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses3 / 0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$216

Trades / day12.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	67¢	64¢	$315	$296	−$19 (-6%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	49¢	50¢	$150	$155	+$5 (+3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$261	+$30	+12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$61	+$25	+42%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$286	+$156	+55%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	55¢	$41	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	71¢	$40	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	51¢	$51	3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$10	3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$25	3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$101	3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	100¢	$291	3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$101	6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	48¢	$102	18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$61	18h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	89¢	$261	18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	64¢	$286	24h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $451.17 · official $451.17 (match) · 14 history records