Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:30:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
26 0x26f0…6951 other 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+1%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate48%31W / 33L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$13
other 26% +$3
politics 12% +$1
finance 3% −$1
economics 2% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.6% -9.0% 67% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 +0.9% -8.7% 44% 6% -8.0%
≤90d 19 +0.9% -8.7% 47% 5% -8.1%
all 64 +1.0% -8.6% 48% 3% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 3% -8.4%
10% -17.4% 0% -17.2%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.2%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.68 per $1 lost it wins $6.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses31 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)64 / 64
History coverage474d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 64 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $52 +$1 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $52 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $2 $0 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $47 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $48 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $22 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $48 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $48 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $9 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $91 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $2 $0 -4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $38 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 24 $2 $0 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $94 +$12 +13%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 22 $28 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $43 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Aug 10 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 10 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jul 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 1% and 0%? Jul 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 09 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 08 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $7 $0 -0%
Will turnout be between 1100000 and 1200000 in the NYC Democratic mayo Jul 08 $14 $0 +1%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 08 $4 $0 +5%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 07 $14 $0 +0%
Wimbledon: Sinner vs. Dimitrov Jul 07 $9 $0 +1%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 06 $29 $0 +0%
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before August? Jul 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 01 $2 $0 +2%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jun 24 $12 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on June 20? Jun 21 $2 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 01 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $53 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $52 4h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $52 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $52 23h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 38h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 40h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 40h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 40h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $17 44h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $11 44h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $28 46h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $28 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $19 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $12 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $34 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $46 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $48 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $22 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $22 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 70¢ $48 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 70¢ $13 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 70¢ $15 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 70¢ $20 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $22 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $26 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 54¢ $48 25d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $9 26d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $3 26d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $6 26d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $28 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 215 history records