Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:54:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x26f1…6d2f sports 113 markets active 0h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$54 (+1%) realized +$82 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%46W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$960now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$62
7 days−$52
14 days−$33
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$34
world 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -22.2% -29.6% 34% 32% -11.8%
≤30d 109 -11.9% -20.3% 41% 39% -9.8%
≤90d 109 -11.9% -20.3% 41% 39% -9.8%
all 110 -11.7% -20.1% 42% 39% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 39% -9.5%
10% -27.8% 37% -18.2%
15% -34.7% 34% -26.1%
20% -41.1% 28% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$15 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$960
Realized+$82
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses46 / 64
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions3
Markets (closed)110 / 113
History coverage149d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Over 89¢ 82¢ $877 $808 −$69 (-8%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 59¢ 79¢ $68 $91 +$23 (+34%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 38¢ 54¢ $44 $62 +$18 (+41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set 2 Winner: Helioevaara/Patten vs Arevalo/Pavic Jun 21 $2 −$2 -84%
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) Jun 21 $13 −$3 -22%
Set 2 Winner: Giron vs Choinski Jun 21 $5 −$2 -29%
Set 2 Winner: Arnaldi vs Samuel Jun 21 $2 −$1 -33%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $3 $0 -11%
Ajla Tomljanovic vs. Veronika Erjavec: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 +$22 +211%
Set Handicap: Tomljanovic (-1.5) vs Erjavec (+1.5) Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $15 +$2 +10%
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs ex-RUBY (+1.5) Jun 20 $9 +$3 +40%
Set 2 Winner: Helioevaara/Patten vs Harrison/Skupski Jun 20 $1 −$1 -91%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Set 2 Winner: Oliynykova vs Johnson Jun 20 $3 −$1 -30%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $62 −$51 -83%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) Jun 20 $82 −$8 -10%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) Jun 20 $13 −$13 -99%
Set Handicap: Galloway/Peers (-1.5) vs Arribage/Olivetti (+1.5) Jun 20 $39 −$1 -3%
Halle Open (Doubles): Galloway/Peers vs Arribage/Olivetti Jun 20 $34 +$4 +12%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $8 +$2 +28%
Set Handicap: Pegula (-1.5) vs Keys (+1.5) Jun 19 $0 $0 -97%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Set 2 Winner: Medjedovic vs Humbert Jun 18 $10 +$10 +105%
Hamad Medjedovic vs. Ugo Humbert: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Rinky Hijikata vs. Jiri Lehecka: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 Jun 18 $2 +$3 +158%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $3 +$2 +52%
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 16 $1,561 −$19 -1%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 178.5 Jun 16 $3 +$2 +46%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 176.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $4 +$1 +42%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Game Handicap: YB (-1.5) vs Game Master (+1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -82%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $44 +$69 +158%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6 +$1 +13%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 14 $49 +$31 +62%
Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) Jun 14 $66 −$66 -99%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Map Handicap: HOTU (-1.5) vs KOLESIE (+1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$1 -30%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +129%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $29 −$29 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 +$39 +197%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $38 −$38 -99%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $4 +$6 +176%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 14 $42 +$77 +185%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $89 +$97 +109%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $74 −$73 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $6 22m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $92 22m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $781 1h
Set 2 Winner: Helioevaara/Patten vs Arevalo/Pavic SELL Helioevaara/Patten 2¢ $0 3h
Set 2 Winner: Helioevaara/Patten vs Arevalo/Pavic BUY Helioevaara/Patten 12¢ $2 3h
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) SELL FURIA 53¢ $10 4h
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) BUY FURIA 66¢ $13 4h
Set 2 Winner: Giron vs Choinski SELL Choinski 6¢ $1 6h
Set 2 Winner: Giron vs Choinski BUY Choinski 11¢ $2 6h
Set 2 Winner: Giron vs Choinski SELL Giron 55¢ $3 6h
Set 2 Winner: Giron vs Choinski BUY Giron 64¢ $3 6h
Set 2 Winner: Arnaldi vs Samuel SELL Samuel 19¢ $1 7h
Set 2 Winner: Arnaldi vs Samuel BUY Samuel 27¢ $2 7h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 61¢ $3 7h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $3 7h
Ajla Tomljanovic vs. Veronika Erjavec: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Under 2.5 100¢ $32 9h
Set Handicap: Tomljanovic (-1.5) vs Erjavec (+1.5) BUY Erjavec 67¢ $3 9h
Ajla Tomljanovic vs. Veronika Erjavec: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 29¢ $6 9h
Set Handicap: Tomljanovic (-1.5) vs Erjavec (+1.5) BUY Erjavec 67¢ $3 9h
Ajla Tomljanovic vs. Veronika Erjavec: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 28¢ $1 9h
Ajla Tomljanovic vs. Veronika Erjavec: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 41¢ $3 9h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $15 16h
Set 2 Winner: Helioevaara/Patten vs Harrison/Skupski SELL Helioevaara/Patten 1¢ $0 26h
Set 2 Winner: Helioevaara/Patten vs Harrison/Skupski BUY Helioevaara/Patten 10¢ $1 26h
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs ex-RUBY (+1.5) BUY ex-RUBY 81¢ $6 28h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 15¢ $1 28h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $2 28h
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs ex-RUBY (+1.5) BUY ex-RUBY 57¢ $3 28h
Set 2 Winner: Oliynykova vs Johnson SELL Johnson 29¢ $2 28h
Set 2 Winner: Oliynykova vs Johnson BUY Johnson 40¢ $3 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $959.89 · official $960.88 (match) · 443 history records