Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:48:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
26 0x26f1…ebee sports 331 markets active 2d ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate53%170W / 153L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$86
14 days+$71
30 days+$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$23
other 8% −$1
crypto 6% −$25
economics 2% −$6
world 1% −$7
tech 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +27.7% +15.5% 74% 68% +14.1%
≤30d 90 +12.0% +1.4% 66% 49% -0.1%
≤90d 228 +1.9% -7.8% 55% 46% -5.7%
all 323 -3.4% -12.6% 53% 46% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 46% -9.8%
10% -21.0% 45% -18.4%
15% -28.6% 43% -26.3%
20% -35.6% 39% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$12 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses170 / 153
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions8
Markets (closed)323 / 331
History coverage153d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 323 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 79¢ 81¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 68¢ 100¢ $12 $18 +$6 (+47%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 53¢ 62¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ 42¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 89¢ 99¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+11%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 11¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 143 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 +$16 +79%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$14 +67%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 27 $10 +$8 +76%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 27 $20 −$1 -3%
T20 Blast: Kent vs Nottinghamshire Jun 27 $10 +$8 +76%
T20 Blast: Hampshire vs Yorkshire Jun 27 $10 +$7 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$12 +60%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $7 +$5 +70%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 21 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$32 +158%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $10 +$15 +146%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $60 $0 +0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $10 +$13 +124%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $10 +$10 +97%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $10 +$11 +109%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 7? Jun 16 $7 $0 +0%
Heilbronn: Luka Mikrut vs Emilio Nava Jun 16 $10 −$3 -26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 7? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +15%
Cholet vs. Paris Basketball Jun 16 $10 +$6 +62%
Libema Open, Qualification: Robin Montgomery vs Joanna Garland Jun 16 $10 +$7 +67%
Anadolu Efes vs. Fenerbahce Jun 16 $10 +$8 +76%
T20 Blast: Middlesex vs Essex Jun 16 $10 +$8 +79%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Roman Safiullin vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 16 $10 +$9 +86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 16 $10 +$15 +146%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 16 $20 +$14 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 56¢ $10 42h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 50¢ $10 42h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ $10 42h
T20 Blast: Hampshire vs Yorkshire BUY Hampshire 59¢ $10 42h
T20 Blast: Kent vs Nottinghamshire BUY Nottinghamshire 56¢ $10 42h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 51¢ $10 42h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 42h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 42h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 42h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 42h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 61¢ $20 42h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 42h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 42h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 42h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 58¢ $7 6d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 95¢ $20 6d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 79¢ $20 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 6d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 58¢ $20 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 38¢ $20 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 11d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ $10 11d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 44¢ $10 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.35 · official $110.35 (match) · 551 history records