Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:32:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

26
0x26f4…e110
other · 61 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$32 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$32 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$261
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses4 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Open positions19
Markets (closed)52 / 61
History coverage3d
Avg bet$572
Trades / day1157.9
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 19 History 52 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$32
14 days+$32
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-0%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 99¢ 98¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? No 100¢ 99¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 99¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-0%)
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? No 100¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $123 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 12 $386 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 12 $3,503 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $1,002 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 12 $4,677 +$16 +0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $186 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $31 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 12 $430 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $416 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $147 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $154 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $47 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $1,018 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $91 $0 -0%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 12 $925 +$14 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 12 $140 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $33 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $210 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $29 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $29 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $850 $0 -0%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $135 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $97 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 12 $45 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $665 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $1,596 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $6,750 −$4 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 12 $47 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Jun 12 $16 $0 -0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $16 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $92 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $2,919 −$2 -0%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $557 $0 -0%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $352 $0 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $15 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $60 +$15 +24%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $304 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 29% +$10
other 26% −$4
world 14% +$30
economics 13% −$1
tech 11% −$2
crypto 8% −$2
finance 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $16 0m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $15 1m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $15 1m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $15 1m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $15 1m
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $16 3m
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 7m
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $14 7m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $31 14m
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 14m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $16 15m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $1 15m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $31 15m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $33 15m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $50 15m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $7 15m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $44 16m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $44 16m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $37 16m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $14 16m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $72 16m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $36 16m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $50 16m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $50 16m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $50 16m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $50 16m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $12 16m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $38 16m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $38 16m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $50 16m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +0.5% -9.1% 8% 2% -9.4%
≤30d 52 +0.5% -9.1% 8% 2% -9.4%
≤90d 52 +0.5% -9.1% 8% 2% -9.4%
all 52 +0.5% -9.1% 8% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1157.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 2% -9.4%
10% -17.8% 2% -18.1%
15% ← realistic here -25.7% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $260.88 · official $260.89 (match) · 3500 history records