Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:37:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x26f5…6cab other 249 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$73 (-0%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%17W / 231L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$16
14 days−$26
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$35
sports 26% −$25
politics 9% −$6
economics 6% +$1
crypto 6% −$10
culture 5% −$5
world 5% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 62 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 177 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 248 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses17 / 231
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)248 / 249
History coverage137d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 248 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $66 $66 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $398 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $66 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 16 $359 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $1,078 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $487 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 15 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $148 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $438 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $172 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $289 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $414 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $304 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $623 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $374 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $627 −$2 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $603 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $242 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $240 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $296 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $535 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $70 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $615 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $815 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $204 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $189 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $309 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $231 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $232 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $586 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $334 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $425 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $315 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $172 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $73 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 02 $529 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $74 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $412 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? May 30 $236 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 30 $326 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? May 30 $277 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $172 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $582 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $66 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $66 5h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $66 7h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $66 15h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $66 16h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $66 18h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $66 19h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $66 30h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $67 31h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $67 43h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $67 44h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $67 2d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $67 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $67 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $67 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $67 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $67 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $67 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $67 2d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $67 2d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $67 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $67 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $67 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $67 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $68 3d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $68 3d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $68 3d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $68 3d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $68 3d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $68 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.96 · official $65.96 (match) · 1372 history records