Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:51:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

26
0x26f7…3ea6
sports · 385 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$321 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$314 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11
Realized+$314
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses184 / 199
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)383 / 385
History coverage225d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 2 History 383 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$1
14 days+$15
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? No 53¢ 54¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Germany 55¢ 30¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-46%)
Kings vs. Celtics Kings 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Nets vs. Nuggets Nets 28¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Spurs 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Xtreme Gaming 35¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Oh My God 23¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Pacers vs. Magic Pacers 31¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner T1 43¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Hornets vs. Pacers Hornets 54¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 46¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 FlyQuest 45¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-7.5) Spurs 50¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner FaZe 42¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Trail Blazers vs. Warriors Trail Blazers 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 55¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 TYLOO 46¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Kings 52¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Spread: Lakers (-11.5) Bulls 55¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Hawks Timberwolves 58¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs G2 38¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Hawks vs. Spurs Hawks 52¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Kings vs. Pistons Kings 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Warriors Knicks 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Celtics vs. 76ers 76ers 28¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $5 +$6 +124%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$6 +109%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$6 +144%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 +$9 +172%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $7 +$6 +83%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 +$8 +134%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5) Jun 13 $7 +$7 +89%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $6 +$8 +129%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 +$11 +109%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5) Jun 12 $6 +$6 +92%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $7 −$7 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$6 +158%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $11 −$11 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $7 −$7 -98%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 09 $8 −$8 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $13 +$13 +96%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5 +$5 +93%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $6 +$9 +163%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $6 +$6 +93%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $5 +$5 +108%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $6 +$6 +93%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $10 +$6 +55%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $6 +$10 +165%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $8 +$7 +86%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $8 +$4 +50%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $8 −$8 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $4 −$4 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $5 −$5 -99%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $5 +$8 +164%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $3 +$5 +149%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $8 +$5 +65%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $7 +$4 +57%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $5 +$8 +172%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $3 +$8 +250%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 90% +$60
other 10% +$251
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 55¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $8 3h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 44¢ $5 7h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 43¢ $6 8h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 47¢ $5 9h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 41¢ $4 10h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $7 16h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $5 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $6 25h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 27¢ $3 29h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) BUY Monte 53¢ $7 29h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 34¢ $5 30h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5) BUY TheMongolz 53¢ $7 31h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 43¢ $6 32h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $10 47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 55¢ $10 47h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $7 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 46¢ $7 2d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5) BUY MOUZ 52¢ $6 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 44¢ $8 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $11 3d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 46¢ $7 5d
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) BUY TYLOO 55¢ $8 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 57¢ $5 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $8 5d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO 46¢ $7 6d
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY FlyQuest 45¢ $6 7d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 51¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +5.6% -4.5% 48% 48% -9.0%
≤30d 64 +7.7% -2.6% 48% 48% -9.7%
≤90d 100 +4.2% -5.8% 43% 43% -12.6%
all 383 +13.6% +2.8% 48% 48% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.8% 48% -3.7%
10% -7.0% 48% -12.9%
15% -16.0% 45% -21.3%
20% -24.3% 43% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.71 · official $10.71 (match) · 703 history records