Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:42:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x26fb…bf43 sports 167 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$128 (-3%) realized −$128 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate50%83W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$27
14 days−$54
30 days−$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$319
other 11% +$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -0.4% -9.9% 55% 35% -13.8%
≤30d 99 -5.2% -14.2% 47% 28% -12.7%
≤90d 167 -5.2% -14.2% 50% 34% -13.4%
all 167 -5.2% -14.2% 50% 34% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 34% -13.4%
10% -22.4% 20% -21.6%
15% -29.9% 13% -29.2%
20% -36.8% 8% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$128
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses83 / 84
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions0
Markets (closed)167 / 167
History coverage54d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 167 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $80 +$3 +4%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $29 $0 -1%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $19 +$5 +28%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Jun 23 $16 +$2 +14%
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Nuno Borges Jun 23 $14 +$3 +18%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally Jun 23 $20 −$6 -30%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $20 $0 -1%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $18 +$2 +13%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $18 $0 +0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $35 −$5 -16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $16 +$7 +46%
Plovdiv: Yanaki Milev vs Ognjen Milic Jun 22 $20 −$4 -20%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Alex Barrena Jun 22 $19 +$1 +6%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Hugo Grenier Jun 22 $19 −$1 -3%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Anton Matusevich vs Rei Sakamoto Jun 22 $27 −$8 -29%
Ben Shelton vs. Ethan Quinn: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5) Jun 18 $48 −$3 -6%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $37 +$11 +29%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $37 $0 +1%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $27 +$10 +38%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$2 -41%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$5 -53%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $9 +$1 +9%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $8 +$1 +14%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $23 −$15 -64%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$4 -15%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $24 +$2 +10%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $22 +$2 +10%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $16 +$6 +37%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $55 −$5 -10%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $33 −$2 -5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $58 +$6 +10%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $33 −$17 -50%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $29 +$5 +18%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $168 −$74 -44%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $92 +$11 +12%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $277 −$28 -10%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $73 +$7 +10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $55 +$58 +106%
Spread: United States (-1.5) AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 20 Jun 12 $92 −$38 -41%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $73 +$19 +26%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $56 +$18 +31%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $32 +$24 +73%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $62 −$1 -1%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 10 $28 +$5 +18%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 10 $27 +$1 +2%
Libema Open, Qualification: Yue Yuan vs Robin Montgomery Jun 06 $3 −$1 -42%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 06 $2 $0 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL No 89¢ $27 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 93¢ $28 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL No 89¢ $28 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 88¢ $28 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 77¢ $28 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 77¢ $29 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL No 79¢ $29 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $24 2h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Ghana 78¢ $19 7h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens BUY Naomi Osaka 87¢ $16 14h
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Nuno Borges SELL Nuno Borges 100¢ $16 15h
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Nuno Borges BUY Nuno Borges 84¢ $14 15h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally SELL Caty McNally 51¢ $14 16h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally BUY Caty McNally 71¢ $20 18h
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro SELL Emma Navarro 81¢ $20 19h
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 81¢ $20 19h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $18 25h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 87¢ $18 25h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 86¢ $18 26h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $17 26h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $12 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 37¢ $12 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 67¢ $23 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $16 38h
Plovdiv: Yanaki Milev vs Ognjen Milic SELL Ognjen Milic 63¢ $16 38h
Plovdiv: Yanaki Milev vs Ognjen Milic BUY Ognjen Milic 78¢ $20 38h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Alex Barrena SELL Timofey Skatov 100¢ $20 39h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Alex Barrena BUY Timofey Skatov 94¢ $19 39h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Hugo Grenier SELL Jaime Faria 87¢ $18 41h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Hugo Grenier BUY Jaime Faria 89¢ $19 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 413 history records