Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:39:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x26ff…27c8 sports 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 633d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$62 (+4%) realized +$59 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate19%5W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$965now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$20
sports 28% +$90
politics 2% −$5
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 +127.3% +105.6% 100% 100% +105.6%
all 26 -21.1% -28.6% 19% 12% +2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.6% 12% +2.3%
10% -35.4% 12% -7.5%
15% -41.7% 12% -16.5%
20% -47.4% 12% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 97% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +127% too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$7 · ×6.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

633d coverage
Net worth$965
Realized+$59
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses5 / 21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage633d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $900 $900 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 64¢ $62 $66 +$4 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Warriors vs. Bucks Apr 06 $5 +$6 +127%
Buccaneers vs. Texans Sep 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Adrienne Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Waldemar Witkowski be the next President of Poland? Jul 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana reach $220 in June? Jul 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 19 $1 $0 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? May 15 $6 $0 -1%
Will Mircea Geoană win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sean Fraser be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party? May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 President’s Trophy? May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 08 $6 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 30 $5 $0 -1%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 25 $4 $0 -1%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 17 $3 $0 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bayern Munich win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 09 $5 $0 -1%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 08 $7 $0 -1%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 03 $2 $0 -9%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $3 $0 -2%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 02 $5 $0 -1%
Canucks vs. Hurricanes Jan 13 $136 +$98 +72%
Kraken vs. Blue Jackets Jan 10 $104 −$104 -100%
Thunder vs. Cavaliers Jan 09 $130 +$98 +75%
Who will speak more at VP Debate? Oct 02 $22 −$22 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $63 1h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $900 1h
Warriors vs. Bucks BUY Bucks 44¢ $5 239d
Buccaneers vs. Texans BUY Texans 57¢ $8 284d
Will Adrienne Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes $1 345d
Will Solana reach $220 in June? BUY No 100¢ $5 368d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 403d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? SELL No 99¢ $5 403d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 403d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 406d
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 407d
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 407d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? SELL Yes 81¢ $6 407d
Will Waldemar Witkowski be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes $1 408d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes 82¢ $6 408d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $6 414d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 100¢ $6 414d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 98¢ $5 422d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 99¢ $5 422d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL Yes 77¢ $4 427d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes 78¢ $4 428d
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 435d
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 435d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 91¢ $5 436d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 92¢ $5 436d
Will Bayern Munich win the UEFA Champions League? SELL No 93¢ $5 443d
Will Bayern Munich win the UEFA Champions League? BUY No 94¢ $5 443d
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? SELL Yes 74¢ $4 444d
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? BUY Yes 74¢ $4 444d
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? SELL Yes 71¢ $4 445d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $965.34 · official $965.34 (match) · 54 history records